By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is struggling to hold on as concerns over the strength of the yen and fiscal instability drove a divergence between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin fell 0.8% in 24 hours to sit below $88,000, and ether lost more than 1.6% to just below $2,900. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.54%.
The yen, meanwhile, rose more than 1.4% against the dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would “take all necessary measures to counter speculative and highly abnormal movements.”
Although Takaichi did not identify the market moves that are causing concern, yields on the country’s 10-year bond this month hit a 27-year high before seeing a slight decline.
Traders are also interpreting a recent “rate control” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a possible sign of coordinated action with Japan, a scenario that is pushing investors away from riskier assets as the yen carries trade unwinds.
Michael Burry, the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the market, that is, betting on a fall, recently pointed to Japanese bond yields closing the gap with global yields, commenting “waiting for repatriation.”
The proposal is that nearly $5 trillion of overseas investment, mostly in the United States, would be withdrawn to take advantage of these dividends. As a result, capital has fled risk assets in anticipation of such a move. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.8%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell.
However, that capital is not rotated into bitcoin, but rather into gold. The precious metal topped $5,000 an ounce for the first time earlier today and is already at $5,090. Bitcoin’s always-on nature, deep liquidity and instant settlement may hold it back, according to NYDIG’s global head of research, Greg Cipolaro.
“During periods of stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference dominates, and this dynamic hurts bitcoin far more than gold,” he wrote in a note shared with CoinDesk.
Blockchain data also suggests internal weakness. CryptoQuant said in a report that older bitcoin holders are starting to sell at a loss for the first time since October 2023.
Traders will watch this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain firm, although guidance from Chairman Jerome Powell will be key.
Furthermore, US government shutdown risks, currently pegged at 79% on Polymarket and nearly 78% on Kalshi, add another layer of uncertainty ahead of a week when major tech companies will report earnings and stock guidance. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- January 26 at 8:30 AM: US Durable Goods Orders MoM for November (prev -2.2%)
- January 26 at 10:30am: US Dallas Fed manufacturing index for January (previously -10.9)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Maple Finance votes to extend the 25% protocol revenue allocation to the Sirup Strategic Fund for the first half of 2026. Voting ends January 26.
- Lido votes to implement a dynamic DVT incentive model that adjusts reward splits based on operating costs, alongside a reform of the Rewards Share Committee to support Lido V3 features like stVaults. Voting ends January 26.
- Unlocks
- January 26: to unlock 10.5% of its circulating supply, worth $508.2 million.
- The token is launched
- January 26: Rainbow (RBNW) airdrop snapshot to be taken.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.5% as of 16 ET Friday at $87,928.03 (24 hours: -0.67%)
- ETH is down 1.5% to $2,897.28 (24h: -1.31%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% to 2,681.29 (24 hours: -1.34%%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps to 3.05%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0051% (5.5856% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.92% to 97.46
- Gold futures are up 1.42% at $4,983.10
- Silver futures are up 7.15% at $103.26
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.79% at 52,885.25
- The Hang Seng closed unchanged at 26,765.52
- The FTSE is unchanged at 10,143.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.13% to 5,948.20
- The DJIA closed Friday down 0.58% at 49,098.71
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,915.61
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.28% at 23,501.24
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.43% at 33,144.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.5% at 3,591.57
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 2.8 bps to 4.211%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% at 6,933.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,680.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.76% at 49,180.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.79% (-0.13%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03294 (1.31%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.17
- Total fees: 1.93 BTC / $169,938
- CME Futures open interest: 124,740 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 17.2 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 5.87%
Technical Analysis
- BTC faces stiff resistance after a weekly close below $88,000 and a rejection at the 50-week exponential moving average of $96,700
- Unless it regains $88,000, the market is likely to move into a consolidation range between $80,000 and $88,000 as short-term volatility prices in this local uncertainty before a broader breakout attempt.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Friday at $216.95 (-2.77%), -2.25% to $212.06 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $71.33 (-0.03%), -2.29% at $69.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.90 (+3.17%), -2.51% at $31.10
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.75 (-2.00%), -0.73% at $35.49
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.50 (+2.04%), -2.10% at $10.28
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.28 (+1.17%), -1.79% at $16.97
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.79 (+3.93%), -1.33% at $18.54
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.71 (+3.94%), -2.26% at $13.40
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $49.14 (+4.71%), -1.59% at $48.36
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.99 (-4.83%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $163.11 (+1.32%), -2.33% at $159.31
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.87 (+0.06%), -1.78% at $0.85
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.75 (-0.31%), -2.56% at $9.50
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.00 (+1.01%), -4.50% at $1.91
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.27 (-3.79%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$103.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$41.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.33 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
As Europe’s dependence on American natural gas grows, so does Trump’s leverage (The New York Times): The tension over Greenland raised concerns that the Trump administration could turn the American oil and gas industry into a way to pressure Europe.
Dollar hits four-month low as gold tops $5,000 (Bloomberg): The dollar extended its selloff on Monday as speculation swirled that the United States could coordinate intervention with Japanese authorities to support the yen. Stocks retreated while gold topped $5,000 per ounces.
India to cut tariffs on cars to 40% in EU trade deal, sources say (Reuters): India plans to cut tariffs on cars imported from the EU to 40% from as high as 110%, in the biggest opening of the country’s market yet, as the two sides close on a free trade pact that could come as early as Tuesday.
