By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
The crypto market feels extra smooth after bitcoin fell 7% last week, the biggest loss in two months. Still, there is a glimmer of hope in bullish derivative bets, now at cheap prices.
The drop pushed prices below the steady uphill, a “bullish trendline” that technical analysts call it, which kept climbing from $20,000 in early 2023 to a record high of $126,000 last October.
The pattern reinforces concerns sparked by bitcoin’s sharp pullback from all-time highs: We’ve slipped into a bear market (check the TA section). So far, follow-up roller coaster has been tame. Bitcoin prices rose to nearly $88,000 from weekend lows of around $86,000.
Still, the overall picture looks bleak, with a weakening institutional appetite for cryptocurrency accompanying the bearish message from charts. Spot ETFs listed in the U.S. recorded net outflows of $1.33 billion last week, the most in 11 months, according to SoSoValue data. On Monday, they pulled in just $6.84 million.
“At times it seems that speculators’ capital and attention is now focused solely on precious metals (primarily gold and silver) and there is simply no strength left in crypto,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at The FXPro, said in an email.
Some observers believe the money will return once the gold and silver rallies fade. If you share a similar bullish view, BTC call options – derivative contracts that offer large upside potential at a small upfront price – offer the best way to bet on it.
Those calls look cheap as everyone piles into puts, which offer downside protection, according to Matthew Siegel, head of digital assets research at VanEck.
“Downside protection is officially the crowded trade. While everyone pays a premium for puts, upside exposure [calls] trade cheap. If you have a dissertation on a course of rejection, the vol surface offers a discount,” Siegel said.
In other news, BlackRock’s global fixed income chief investment officer Rick Rieder, who manages about $2.4 trillion in client money and advocates for lower U.S. interest rates, has emerged as a contender to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.
In traditional markets, both gold and silver were trading at lifetime highs, while the dollar index was at its lowest since last September.
South Korea’s benchmark stock index, the Kospi, continued to rise, bringing the year-to-date gain to 20%, building on last year’s solid 75% gain. This matters because, oddly enough, Kospi’s new highs over the years have triggered bearish swings in bitcoin. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- January 27: US ADP Hiring Change Weekly (Prev 8K)
- January 27: US S&P/Case-Shiller House Price YoY for November (Prev 1.3%); MoM (Previous -0.3%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- January 27: Zebec Network, Dash, Houdini Swap and Cryptic to participate in an X Spaces session on why privacy matters.
- January 27: Brave’s Brendan Eich, Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson, and Mythigal Games’ John Linden attend an X Spaces session.
- January 27: PancakeSwap to host an Ask Me Anything session (AMA) with the Venus Protocol.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- January 27: Theo Network expected to make an announcement, possibly in conjunction with the launch of thGOLD.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.38% as of 16 ET Monday at $88,326.08 (24 hours: -0.18%)
- ETH is up 0.1% to $2,929.56 (24h: +0.22%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.58% to 2,683.47 (24h: +0.32%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0074% (8.068% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.01
- Gold futures are unchanged at $5,082.10
- Silver futures are down 2.82% at $112.25
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.85% at 53,333.54
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.35% to 27,126.95
- The FTSE rose 0.4% to 10,189.88
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.22% to 5,970.72
- The DJIA closed Monday up 0.64% at 49,412.40
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.50% at 6,950.23
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.43% at 23,601.36
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.16% at 33,093.32
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.36% at 3,604.49
- US 10-year Treasuries are up 1 bps at 4.221%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.25% to 6,999.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.56% to 25,994.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,518.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.67% (-0.07%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03307 (-0.28%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 921 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $39.22
- Total Fees: 2.38 BTC / $208,632
- CME Futures open interest: 120,620 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 17.2 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 5.87%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin price fluctuations from 2023.
- Prices fell over 7% last week when the large red candle pierced the trend line representing the 2023 ladder rally.
- The so-called collapse confirms concerns in the bear market.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $213.48 (-1.60%), +0.76% at $215.10 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $70.90 (-0.60%), +0.56% at $71.30
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.28 (-1.94%), +0.38% at $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.66 (-0.25%), +1.04% at $36.03
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.98 (-4.95%), +0.70% at $10.05
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.23 (-6.08%), +1.42% at $16.46
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.05 (+1.38%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.44 (-9.26%), +0.88% at $12.55
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $46.58 (-5.21%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.72 (-1.80%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $160.58 (-1.55%), +0.46% at $161.32
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.79 (-9.76%), +2.56% at $0.81
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.38 (-3.79%), unchanged in pre-market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.89 (-5.50%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.29 (+1.57%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $6.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.48 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $117 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.45 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million
Source: Farside Investors
