A rotating cast of top contenders has Polymarket betting on the next chair at the Federal Reserve, but the new favorite, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, has argued that bitcoin will replace gold and has recommended that people keep it in their portfolios.
Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, has risen to the top of the list of President Donald Trump’s likely picks in the prediction markets, and he has often waxed supportive of cryptocurrencies.
He said as far back as 2020 — in the much earlier days of digital assets — that bitcoin would take over from gold as a store of value “because it’s so much more functional than sending a bullion around,” he said in a CNBC interview. And more recently, he told the same outlet that bitcoin should be part of a smart investment mix, saying the leading digital token and gold were “things that give you a little bit of ballast in the portfolio.”
In that September interview, when bitcoin was still above $112,000, he predicted “it will go up.” The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $88,000, after falling recently on possible tariffs and other geopolitical turmoil.
Trump has a choice to make before the term of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell — whom the president has framed as his economic nemesis — expires on May 15. It was Trump who originally placed Powell, a Republican, in the pivotal role, but the president has since routinely bemoaned his performance, calling him “stupid” and “stupid like ‘LateMr.'” and nicknames.
Meanwhile, Trump has frequently teased front-runners for his replacement, creating a volatile prediction market. Rieder has said it is “an incredible honor to even be named on that list.”
Rieder loudly shares Trump’s frustrations over the leisurely pace at which the Fed has been cutting interest rates. In a recent interview during the president’s trip to Davos, Switzerland, Trump called Rieder “very impressive,” and his odds on Polymarket have risen from under 3% to nearly 53% at their height, before settling at the current 48%.
For the crypto sector, a Fed chair can pull several levers. Aside from a major influence in the group that sets the federal funds rate, the chairman controls the board’s regulatory agenda. However, Powell has deferred to the Vice Chair for Supervision, Michelle Bowman, on the Fed’s supervisory work.
So Rieder’s crypto enthusiasm may not play a significant role in the rules the regulatory side of the Fed writes for things like stablecoins or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
More than a policy mechanic, a Fed chair has a softer role as an outsized voice on the health and direction of the US economy, and a staunch bitcoin advocate in that position would be a first.
Although Powell will soon step down as chairman, his tenure as a regular governor on the Fed board will continue, leaving some questions about whether he will take the traditional route and leave after his leadership expires or stay for another two years. Each member of the board has an automatic seat on the Federal Open Market Committee, which decides U.S. interest rates, meaning a decision by Powell to stay would keep his generally centrist position in place on that group and would not open up another seat for a Trump appointee.
Trump’s relentless criticism of Powell escalated last month when his Justice Department said it was investigating the central bank chairman over his public descriptions of renovations at the Federal Reserve buildings in Washington. Powell issued an unusually direct response.
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best judgment of what will serve the public, rather than following the president’s preferences,” Powell said.
