Bitcoin traders warn of downside as gold rally continues

Bitcoin fell to the $88,000 level on Thursday as a rebound in the US dollar and continued strength in commodities kept crypto trading on the back burner, a day after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady.

Bitcoin fell below $88,500 on Thursday after briefly trading above $89,000 earlier in the session, extending a choppy week of price action. Ether fell back towards $2,950, while solana, XRP and dogecoin posted deeper intraday losses, down between 2% and 4%. The setback came alongside a firmer dollar and waning momentum in broader risk markets, with crypto continuing to lag strength in commodities and equities.

Crypto’s muted price action contrasted with sharper moves across macro markets. The dollar posted its biggest one-day gain since November on Wednesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration continued to support a strong dollar policy, pushing back against speculation that Washington was comfortable with a prolonged decline.

The move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged after three cuts late last year, with policymakers signaling they want clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before moving again.

Although the result was widely expected, the firm policy message helped calm currency markets after days of volatility linked to fiscal concerns and political pressure on the central bank.

Commodities remained the dominant trade. Gold held near record levels after topping $5,500 an ounce earlier in the week, while silver and copper remained high after sharp rallies. The strength in metals has been driven by past dollar weakness, geopolitical risk and demand for assets seen as stores of value amid uncertainty over government finances.

That background has left crypto on the sidelines. Bitcoin, often framed as a hedge against currency depreciation, has failed to keep pace with gold’s rise, trading about 30% below its October peak, even as metals and global stocks are near record highs.

Traders say bitcoin continues to behave more like a high-beta asset than a macro hedge, reacting to swings in the dollar and broader liquidity conditions rather than developing an independent narrative.

“Coupled with an 8% weakening of the dollar from April to June last year, Bitcoin rose by more than 50%,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “Without delving too deeply into history, it’s easy to see that the 4% drop in the dollar index in less than two weeks was met with a 30% jump in silver and a 15% jump in gold.”

“Bitcoin continues to try to consolidate above $89,000. This resistance level approaching a round number is reinforced by the 50-day moving average. BTC’s position in relation to this curve indicates a bearish market. Due to a relatively favorable external environment, it has managed to defend support near $85,000. Still, the swings below the last two-month high are the reasons for the last two-month high swings,” he says. added.

The past week reinforced this pattern, with crypto lagging behind the metals rally and failing to respond meaningfully to earlier dollar weakness.

With the Fed decision behind markets, attention now turns to megacap tech earnings and whether moves in stocks, bonds or currencies generate new volatility across assets.

Until then, bitcoin appears to be stuck in consolidation mode, holding key levels but lacking the momentum to join the trades dominating global markets.

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