Where bitcoin trades from here: Expect patience before the next stage higher.
- Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways between about $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year.
- “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, pointing to options market positioning.
- A breakout is more likely later this year as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are digested.
Why Precious Metals Matter: Gold’s rally reinforces bitcoin’s long-term case.
- Hougan said the rise in gold reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and the risk of asset seizures.
- Silver, he added, looks like a late momentum trade similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
- Over time, he expects this dynamic to drive demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-settlement and settlement.
The central banks circle slowly: Interest is increasing, but adoption is years away.
- Hougan said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks across multiple regions.
- These institutions are still asking fundamental questions about bitcoin’s security and risks, not implementation details.
- He expects central banks will eventually own bitcoin — potentially more than gold — but said the timeline is likely 10 to 20 years.
The $6.5 Million Bitcoin Call: A long-term bet on monetary reality.
- Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach around $6.5 million per share. coin over the next 20 years.
- The core assumption, he said, is not to accelerate adoption, but the continuation of global debt growth, money printing and currency depreciation.
- He argued that bitcoin is a superior version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role.
- “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different than the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we’ll get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Zoom out: Volatility compression is key for institutions.
- Hougan said falling bitcoin volatility is critical to institutional adoption.
- He often tells distributors that bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own.
- Bitwise expects volatility to continue to decline, while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.
Last recording: Short-term chop, long-term conviction.
- Hougan said that regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but it is not necessary for crypto’s long-term trajectory.
- Even without clarity, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to continue to expand.
- “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”
See the full interview.
