By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Friday’s crypto markets are a sea of green, bouncing back from yesterday’s brutal crash in a classic oversold rebound. But real risks linger and threaten any lasting health.
Bitcoin has rallied back to $65,000 after flirting with $60,000, with BlackRock ETF action suggesting capitulation, meaning long-term owners dumping losses, often the bear market’s last gasp. The broader market is also up, with XRP, SOL, ETH and other tokens regaining some balance, while the CoinDesk 20 index added nearly 9% since midnight UTC.
Still, put options on bitcoin remain in demand, signaling continued downside fears. This makes sense for a couple of key reasons: First, macro risks have eased, but they are not gone. President Donald Trump signed a funding bill on Tuesday to end the government shutdown, but cash from the Department of Homeland Security will run out in eight days, meaning there could be another circus before February 14.
Meanwhile, oil prices are high on both sides of the Atlantic amid concerns that tensions between Iran and the United States will escalate. An increase that could add to global inflation, trigger a flight to safety and hammer risk assets like crypto.
Most critically, the recent crash has pushed many holders and treasurers of digital assets underwater. Many of them may capitulate and become marginal sellers in the market, potentially limiting rallies. Plus, trust tends to rebuild only slowly after a breakdown, which is why snapback recoveries always creep.
These things together indicate that the market may not be out of the woods just yet. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 6 February at 8:30 a.m.: Canada’s unemployment rate for January (previously 6.8%)
- 6 February at 10: Canada Ivey PMI index for January (previous 51.9)
- 6 February at 10:00 AM: Michigan US consumer sentiment for February (prev 56.4); Michigan inflation expectations (previously 4%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- February 6: Chainlink hosts an X Spaces session on “Building with the Chainlink Runtime Environment”.
- Unlocks
- February 6: Hyperfluid to unlock 2.79% of its circulating supply worth $287.68 million.
- February 6: to unlock 41.7% of its circulating supply, worth $26.87 million.
- The token is launched
- February 6: MOVA (MOVA) to be listed on LBank, BingX, KuCoin, MEXC and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 4.55% as of 16 ET Thursday at $66,022.00 (24 hours: -6.74%)
- ETH is up 4.14% to $1,924.90 (24h: -7.3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 4.75% to 1,905.03 (24 hours: -7.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 39 bps to 3.48%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0142% (-15.5862% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.81
- Gold futures are down 0.19% at $4,880.30
- Silver futures are down 4.39% at $73.35
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.81% at 54,253.68
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.21% at 26,559.95
- The FTSE is up 0.01% at 10,309.76
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.27% to 5,941.80
- The DJIA closed up On Thursday, it fell 1.20% to 48,908.72
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.23% at 6,798.40
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.59% at 22,540.59
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.77% at 31,994.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.01% at 3,616.07
- US 10-year Treasury is down 1.8 bps at 4.192%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% to 6,841.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.36% to 24,740.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures rose 0.16% to 49,075.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.77% (+0.47%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (0.43%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.76
- Total fees: 5.59 BTC / $377,330
- CME Futures open interest: 115,230 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.4%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format since 2019.
- Prices are rapidly approaching their 200-week average, represented by the red line.
- BTC has consistently entered bear market bottoms around this average, suggesting that the current pullback may be in its final stages.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $146.12 (-13.34%), +5.97% at $154.84 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $50.23 (-8.76%), +5.40% at $52.94
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $16.84 (-16.47%), +6.35% at $17.91
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $24.90 (-8.46%), +3.98% at $25.89
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $6.73 (-18.72%), +6.39% at $7.16
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.06 (-14.71%), +5.14% at $12.68
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.81 (-8.27%), +1.99% at $15.11
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.27 (-19.13%), -3.33% at $7.99
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.23 (-12.56%), +2.24% at $36.02
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.42 (-11.96%), -1.27% at $9.30
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $106.99 (-17.12%), +6.71% at $114.17
- Strive (ASST): closed at $9.86 (-16.75%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.07 (-14.27%), +4.12% at $6.32
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.09 (-19.85%), +7.34% at $1.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $0.95 (-10.27%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$434.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$80.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.86 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.87 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
Bitcoin rebounds above $65,000 after $700 million wipeout in Asia whipsaw (Coindesk): Bitcoin returned above $65,000 after its worst one-day drop since November 2022. About $700 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a matter of hours,
Stocks tumble as AI fears dominate market action (Reuters): Global markets retreated as a stock rout on Wall Street spread across the globe, with volatility gripping precious metals and cryptocurrencies as AI fears weighed on stocks.
Weak earnings pull IREN, Amazon; Bitcoin stocks bounced back in pre-market (CoinDesk): IREN earnings were weaker than expected, while Amazon missed EPS estimates and beat revenue.
Big tech to spend $650 billion this year as AI race intensifies (Bloomberg): The high cost projections raise concerns about energy supplies, prices and the potential distortion of economic data, raising questions about whether companies can afford the costs.
