Bitcoins The collapse on February 5 will go down as one of the most historic sell-offs of all time. Below are the key stats that help define the event and indicate how much further it may be to fall.
The bitcoin price started the day near $73,000 and fell to a low around $62,000, a drop — or, as some market participants call it, a candle — of more than $10,000. Today’s 14% drop was the biggest one-day drop since November 2022, during the implosion of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
The fear and greed index fell to single digits, a level seen only a handful of times in bitcoin’s 17-year history. At the same time, bitcoin was the third most oversold it has ever been on the RSI, an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
Offer in profit and loss
The circulating supply in loss, meaning the number of coins that last moved to prices higher than the market price, increased to nearly 10 million BTC. That’s the fourth-highest level on record, compared to the bottoms of the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear markets.
Another measure, the amount of long-term holders’ circulating supply that is at a loss, reached 4.6 million BTC. At the lows of previous bear markets, the number exceeded 5 million BTC, suggesting that this metric is approaching, but has not yet fully matched, previous extremes.
Supply in profit and supply in loss have nearly converged, a condition that has historically aligned with the bottom of major market declines. At present, about 10 million BTC is in profit and 10 million BTC is in loss.
While no one knows for sure if the bottom is in for bitcoin, history suggests it is likely close, especially with bitcoin already recovering towards $68,000.
Still, market participants can wait for bitcoin to test its 200-week moving average, currently near $58,011.
