Traders on the prediction market Polymarket have doubled the implied odds of the second coming of Jesus Christ before the end of the year, making one of the platform’s foreign contracts a better performer than bitcoin.
The market, titled “Will Jesus Return in 2026,” traded around 4 cents on Friday, implying a roughly 4% chance. That’s up from a low of around 1.8% on January 3, meaning the “Yes” side has gained more than 120% in just over a month.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has moved in the opposite direction. The biggest cryptocurrency has lost 18% this year for reasons ranging from concerns that quantum computers could break encryption to speculation about a hedge fund explosion and broader risk-off pressure across global markets.
Such price action has left even meme-like prediction contracts looking robust by comparison.
Polymarket markets work like binary options. A “Yes” share pays $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not, with the trade price reflecting the implied probability of the volume.
A trader who buys “Yes” at 4 cents is actually paying that amount for a $1 shot. A person who buys “No” at 96 cents is betting that the event will not occur and will earn 4 cents if the contract resolves “No”.
If “No” trades in the mid-to-high 90s for long stretches, it creates the appearance of a slow, steady gain for anyone willing to park money there, even though the trade is ultimately binary and can still fluctuate wildly.
The contract decides to “Yes” if the second coming occurs before 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and to “No” otherwise. Polymarket says the decision will be based on a consensus of credible sources, a clause that highlights why traders treat the market more as news than a serious forecast.
The price action provides a snapshot of how prediction markets can behave as microcap tokens. With relatively limited liquidity, even small bursts of buying can push probabilities significantly higher, creating headline-grabbing percentage gains.
The rally also reflects Polymarket’s growing role as a real-time barometer of internet attention, where everything from elections to celebrity gossip to religious prophecies can be traded in the same interface.
As such, the “Jesus trade” remains a small sideshow. But in a year where bitcoin has struggled to find a stable footing, it’s also a reminder that the strangest corners of crypto are sometimes the only ones that pan out.
