By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell to $68,500 on Tuesday, after failing to regain $70,000 after trading above that level for a while over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 0.23% over the past 24 hours.
The market appears to be stabilizing after last week’s drop to $60,000, which erased all of the cryptocurrency’s gains since Donald Trump’s November 2024 presidential election win.
The slide led to over $2.7 billion in liquidations, washing out leveraged positions. However, it may not have reflected a fundamental change in the crypto market. Rather, it could have been tied to declining liquidity in the broader financial ecosystem.
Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor, said last week’s sell-off across crypto and tech stocks stemmed from temporary drains in US dollar liquidity linked to Treasury operations and the dynamics of government financing.
And then there is artificial intelligence (AI). Investments in that technology have “absorbed available capital for months at the expense of everything else,” Wintermute wrote in a note. The trading firm wrote that the removal of AI companies from the Nasdaq 100 index means that crypto’s negative bias almost disappears.
“The underperformance during rallies and amplified selling during drops is almost entirely explained by AI rotation,” wrote Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere. “For crypto to outperform again, air needs to come out of the AI trade.”
Elsewhere, yields fell on Japanese government bonds, which rose after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory at the weekend. That could avoid further unwinding of the yen carry trade, which could have seen up to $5 trillion invested abroad move back into the country.
Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, pointed to Takaichi’s victory as a potential catalyst for the yen to lose value against the dollar, making the Japanese currency a less attractive investment. That could be a boon for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Still, prices are likely to remain range-bound for now. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures demand from large U.S. investors on the exchange, remains negative, and spot bitcoin ETF flows are also showing hesitation, with daily net inflows of just $145 million yesterday.
“While retail spreads attention across other asset classes, institutional flows through ETFs and derivatives now seem to be dictating direction,” Wintermute wrote. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- February 10: Mantle to host Mantle State of Mind Ep. 06 live from Consensus HK.
- Macro
- 10 February at 07:00: Brazil Inflation Yearly (previously 4.26%), Monthly Month (previously 0.33%)
- 10 February at 8:30 am: US retail sales MoM for December estimated. 0.5% (Previous 0.6%)
- 10 February at 8:30 AM: US Employment Cost Index QoQ (Prev 0.8%)
- 10 Feb at 14: Argentina inflation rate y/y (previously 31.5%), monthly month (previously 2.8%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- February 10: Kanaan (CAN), premarket, -$0.03
- February 10: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.63
- February 10: Upexi (UPXI), after market, -$0.07
- February 10: Lite Strategy (LITS), post-market
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- February 10: Aptos to unlock 0.69% of its circulating supply, worth $12.07 million.
- The token is launched
- February 10: Venice (VVV) token emissions drop from 8 million to 6 million per year.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.9% as of 16 ET Monday at $69,041.32 (24 hours: -0.06%)
- ETH is down 4.94% to $2,016.57 (24 hours: -0.8%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.59% to 3,086.55 (24h: +0.43%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps to 2.82%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.006% (-6.6247% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 96.83
- Gold futures are unchanged at $5,077.00
- Silver futures are down 0.43% at $81.88
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.28% at 57,650.54
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.58% at 27,183.15
- The FTSE is down 0.38% at 10,346.98
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 6,060.67
- The DJIA closed unchanged at 50,135.87 on Monday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.47% at 6,964.82
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.90% at 23,238.67
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.7% at 33,023.32
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.97% at 3,767.79
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 1.4 bps at 4.184%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.09% to 6,989.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,359.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 50,260.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.27% (+0.05%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02921 (-2.66%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,005 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $34.72
- Total fees: 2.92 BTC / $204,792
- CME Futures open interest: 118,215 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.6 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.6%
Technical Analysis
- The ratio of altcoins (excluding Top 10) to BTC weekly chart continues to hold its core support, suggesting that the broader altcoin market did not experience extreme selling during bitcoin’s recent decline.
- The weekly RSI has been rising, indicating some momentum in altcoins relative to BTC.
- There is no clear outbreak at the moment, but it is worth keeping an eye on.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $167.25 (+1.29%), -1.44% at $164.84 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $60.10 (+5.36%), -1.31% at $59.31
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.15 (+7.03%), +0.61% at $21.28
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.05 (+16.76%), unchanged in pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.06 (-2.18%), -1.49% at $7.94
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.97 (+3.60%), -1.27% at $14.78
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.55 (+10.35%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%), -1.77% at $10.01
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $43.83 (+8.41%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.74 (+1.70%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.44 (+2.6%), -2.61% at $134.82
- Strive (ASST): closed at $10.15 (-14.86%), +1.03% at $10.25
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.11 (+1.14%), -0.7% at $7.06
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.05 (-7.89%), +2.86% at $1.08
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.05 (-0.94%), -2.86% at $1.02
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $144.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.82 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $57 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.9 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.8 million
Source: Farside Investors
