Fifty days into 2026, bitcoin has had its worst start to a financial year ever, according to Checkonchain data. The asset is down 23% year-to-date, after falling 10% in January and another 15% in February.
Bitcoin has never before recorded back-to-back declines in January and February, according to Coinglass data. While there have been double-digit declines in January in years such as 2015, 2016 and 2018, each of these was followed by a positive February. If the losses hold, bitcoin is also on track for its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
Checkonchain data shows that in a typical down year, the average index reading is 0.84, 50 days out, a benchmark traders often use to gauge cyclical moves. While bitcoin is currently at 0.77, underscoring the extent of the drawdown.
The weakness follows a 17% drop in 2025, a year after the election. Historically, post-election years have tended to outperform election years and have outperformed several years overall, making the recent underperformance stand out even more.
