By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin has gained 2% over the past 24 hours, hitting a high of $68,000 after a selloff earlier this month. That has done little to ease sentiment, with the “Fear and Greed” index remaining at the “extreme fear” level for a 20th straight day.
André Dragosch, head of research in Europe at Bitwise, said consolidation is expected after the crash, which saw bitcoin fall to a low of $60,000.
“Except for Covid, bitcoin doesn’t usually show V-shaped recoveries after strong capitulations,” he told CoinDesk. “The most likely case is that we continue to move sideways to down.”
Still, Dragosch pointed to signs of optimism. Prediction markets now place the odds of the US Clarity Act passing in 2026 at nearly 80%. He described the bill as an important catalyst for alternative tokens such as ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). Bitwise’s internal Cryptoasset Sentiment Index is registered neutral, he added.
“On the macro front, bitcoin continues to exhibit significant ‘discounts’ to global money supply, gold and the overall macro growth outlook. Bitcoin also exhibits significant undervaluation relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows,” Dragosch said. “ETP flows are still relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, it suggests we could see a significant recovery in bitcoin.”
However, caution lingers. Data from CryptoQuant shows that large bitcoin holders have moved coins to Binance at record levels. Such transfers often signal willingness to sell, increasing supply in spot markets and potentially weighing on prices.
Dragosch dismissed concerns that bitcoin could be a “canary in the macro coal mine,” signaling tighter liquidity and rising recession risk. The US yield curve and other forward-looking indicators point to continued money supply growth, he said. Global liquidity is growing at more than 10% a year, a backdrop that typically hasn’t been aligned with extended bitcoin bear markets, he added.
Indeed, the prediction markets have reduced the odds of a US recession this year. The chance of that happening dropped from over 40% in mid-2025 to just over 20%.
Nevertheless, the crypto market may see volatility rise into the weekend. Later today, the US core PCE index data will be released, which may provide clues as to future Fed policy direction.
Traders are bracing for a narrow increase from previous figures. While higher inflation traditionally supports the argument for scarce assets, a hawkish response from the Fed could drive the dollar higher and push risk assets further into the weekend. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 20 February at 8:30 AM: US Core PCE Price Index MoM for December Estimated 0.4% (Prev 0.2%); Annual estimated 2.9% (Previous 2.8%)
- 20 February at 8:30 AM: US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv for Q4 Estimated 3rd (Prev 4.4%)
- February 20, at 9:45 AM: US S&P Global PMI for manufacturing flashes for February estimated 52.6 (previously 52.4).
- 20 February at 10: US Michigan consumer sentiment final for February estimated 57.3 (previous 56.4)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Aavegotchi DAO votes to consolidate assets from depleted wallets to the liquidity wallet to simplify operations. Voting ends February 22.
- Fluid DAO votes to withdraw 1 million GHO and 1 million FLUID from the treasury to Team Multisig to fund JupLend rewards and protocol incentives. Voting ends February 22.
- GMX votes on a proposal to implement tiered trading fee discounts for stakers and a staker-weighted trade ranking. Voting ends February 22.
- Unlocks
- February 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply, worth $48.33 million.
- February 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 10.64% of its circulating supply, worth $10.77 million.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.97% as of 16 ET Thursday at $68,220.42 (24 hours: +1.98%)
- ETH is up 1.1% to $1,969.19 (24h: +0.12%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% to 1,960.80 (24 hours: +1.14%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps to 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0047% (-5.1936% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.95
- Gold futures are up 0.97% at $5,046.00
- Silver futures are up 3.9% at $80.66
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.12% at 56,825.70
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.1% at 26,413.35
- The FTSE is up 0.69% to 10,700.09
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.48% to 6,088.42
- The DJIA closed down 0.54% at 49,395.16 on Thursday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.28% at 6,861.89
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.31% at 22,682.73
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.61% at 33,594.98
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.83% at 3,738.74
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 0.4 bps at 4.071%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% to 6,890.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.29% to 24,930.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures rose 0.12% to 49,516.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.04% (+0.4%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02883 (-0.93%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,046 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.88
- Total Fees: 2.36 BTC / $157,285
- CME Futures open interest: 119,935 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.54%
Technical Analysis
- The graph shows bitcoin’s weekly price movements against the dollar.
- BTC/USD weekly is still trading at its 200-week exponential moving average and is awaiting confirmation by the end of the week.
- There are no clear RSI divergences or signs of a bottom so far.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $165.94 (+1.15%), +1.98% at $169.23 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $61.92 (-1.95%), +2.08% at $63.21
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.63 (-0.46%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.37 (+1.63%), -1.05% at $32.03
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.96 (+6.13%), +1.63% at $8.09
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.22 (+4.71%), +1.36% at $16.44
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (+4.11%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.82 (+5.93%), +1.43% at $9.96
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.69 (+1.62%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.42 (+5.47%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.45 (+3.39%), +2.48% at $132.66
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.12 (+0.87%), +0.99% at $8.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.80 (+3.03%)
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.67 (-3.33%), +3.48% at $0.69
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.10 (+0.00%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$165.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $53.91 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.26M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$130.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.55 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.73 million
Source: Farside Investors
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