Bitcoins Violent selling earlier this month may be giving way to a late-stage bear market, but investors should not expect a quick recovery, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.
“Current conditions are very reminiscent of late September and mid-November 2022, periods near the bottom of the bear market, which were followed by extended consolidation,” he wrote.
At the time, bitcoin disappeared between $15,000 and $20,000, about 70% below the 2021 peak.
Now, bitcoin has settled into a quieter range between $65,000 and $70,000, and K33 Research’s regime model — which combines derivatives data, ETF flows, technical and macro signals — suggests the market is nearing a cyclical bottom.
The silent grinder
One of the signs of the quiet period of consolidation is that trading activity has fallen significantly, with speculative profits thoroughly washed out.
Spot volume fell 59% week-over-week, the K33 report noted. Meanwhile, the perpetual open rate on futures fell to a four-month low and funding rates remained negative across the board.
That kind of cooling-off period is typical after heavy liquidation cascades, when market participants digest losses and reset positioning, Lunde said.
Meanwhile, US-listed bitcoin ETFs have seen a record drop in exposure of 103,113 BTC since early October. Still, Lunde noted that given BTC has pulled back nearly 50%, more than 90% of peak exposure in bitcoin terms remains.
Sentiment gauges also paint a bleak picture, with the “Crypto Fear and Greed” index falling to a record low of 5 last week and languishing below 10 for most of the past week.
Long-term value range
What does it all mean? Bitcoin is “likely close to or at a global bottom, but set for a longer consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000,” according to Lunde. Similar historical regimes have delivered muted returns
For investors with a long-term view, current levels are still attractive for accumulation, although patience may be required, he argued.
James Check, an onchain analyst and co-founder of Checkonchain, also noted that bitcoin’s sideways periods are an opportunity for positioning.
He said that bitcoin, most of the time, “does nothing” and then tends to move in sharp price changes rather than steady trends. These explosive phases are often concentrated in a handful of trading days, often early in a bull cycle and again towards the later stages.
“It does nothing most of the time, and sometimes it goes up 100% in one quarter, and if you’re not there in that quarter, you kind of miss the whole run.”
He cautioned investors against trying to time tops and bottoms perfectly, as they often miss the initial surge.
In other words, prolonged consolidation can feel frustrating, but historically the market has rewarded patient positioning rather than managing timing.
