Blockchain researcher ZachXBT has yet to name the target. Polymarket punters are already pricing it.
A prediction market asking which crypto firm ZachXBT will expose to insider trading has pulled in nearly $3 million in volume since the chain’s forwarder posted on X that a “major investigation” into one of crypto’s most profitable companies would drop on February 26. He offered no details beyond alleging insider trading.
That was enough. Within hours, Polymarket traders began placing bets across multiple candidates, and the resulting odds act as a real-time map of where the market thinks the bodies are buried.
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction platform where users trade contracts for real-world outcomes using real money. The odds tend to reflect true conviction because punters are risking capital rather than just opinions. The platform gained mainstream credibility during the 2024 US election cycle and has since become crypto’s de facto sentiment gauge for unsettled events.
As of Asian morning hours Tuesday, Meteora is the heavy favorite at 43%, with $319,000 in volume on that result alone. The Solana-based liquidity layer has been a recurring name in community discussions surrounding meme coin market structure — particularly around how launch liquidity is seeded and who ends up on the right side of early price moves.
Its proximity to politically connected token activity, including Trump-themed meme coins, has kept it in the spotlight.
Axiom is at 13%, followed by Pump.fun at 12% with the highest single outcome volume at $332,000 – suggesting heavy two-way action rather than consensus. Pump.fun’s inclusion tracks with months of investigation into early wallet sniping on the platform, although the project has denied claims of insider benefits.
Jupiter rounds off with 8% and MEXC with 7%. Jupiter’s presence reflects broader questions about Solana DeFi routing and fee extraction, while MEXC has been subject to persistent chatter on social media about listing behavior and whale-friendly timing in meme coin markets.
The odds have changed significantly since the market opened. Axiom, Pump.fun and Jupiter are all down 37-42% from their initial readings, while Meteora has consolidated its lead – a pattern that suggests early speculation has given way to more directional conviction as players analyze ZachXBT’s past work and send patterns for clues.
However, none of this constitutes evidence. Predicting markets’ price beliefs, not facts, Polymarket’s odds reflect the collective speculation of a few thousand traders rather than any inside knowledge of the survey itself.
But the market is doing what prediction markets do best – forcing participants to put capital behind their hunches instead of simply tweeting them.
The answer will come in two days.
