Analysts warn that the Taliban could increase TTP, BLA support and risk a wider conflict in Pakistan
An army soldier stands guard at a deserted entry point at the Friendship Gate, after the exchange of fire between the forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan, at the border crossing between the two countries, in Chaman, Pakistan February 27, 2026. Photo taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Abdul Khaliq Achakzai
Weeks after the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan from a US-led coalition, Pakistan’s then-spy chief visited Kabul and told a reporter: “Don’t worry, everything will be fine.”
Five years on, Islamabad – once seen as the Taliban’s patron – is engaged in its fiercest fighting with the extremist group, which Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has described as an “open war”.
The turmoil places a wide swath of Asia – from the Gulf to the Himalayas – in flux, with the US building up forces near Iran, even as tensions between Pakistan and arch-rival India remain high after clashes last May.
At the heart of the conflict with Afghanistan is Pakistan’s accusation that the Afghan Taliban provide support to militant groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have wreaked havoc across the country.
The Afghan Taliban, which had previously fought alongside the TTP, denies the charge and insists that Pakistan’s security situation is its internal problem.
The disagreement is a reflection of starkly incompatible positions taken by both sides as Pakistan expected compliance after decades of support for the Taliban, which did not see itself in terms of Islamabad, analysts said.
“Neither side had an honest conversation about what the relationship would actually look like. That structural misunderstanding is the seed of everything that followed,” says Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh and an Afghanistan expert.
Although tensions have simmered along their jagged 1,600-mile (2,600-kilometer) border for months, following clashes last October, Friday’s fighting is notable for Pakistan’s use of warplanes to target Taliban military installations rather than limiting attacks to the militants it allegedly harbors.
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These include targets deep inland in Kabul, as well as the southern city of Kandahar, seat of Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, according to military spokesman Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.
The clashes are unlikely to end there.
“We are in uncharted territory,” said Abdul Basit, an expert on militancy and violent extremism at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“What we are witnessing is a recipe for instability, as a result of which there will be more violence, there will be more tension. And terrorist groups will gain strength by exploiting the chaos.”
‘A nightmare scenario’ for Pakistan
Pakistan has a formidable military of 660,000 active personnel, backed by a fleet of 465 combat aircraft, several thousand armored fighting vehicles and artillery pieces.
Across the border, the Afghan Taliban have only about 172,000 active military personnel, a smattering of armored vehicles and no real air force.
But the battle-hardened group, which took on a phalanx of Western military powers in 2001 and outlasted them, has the ability to lean on insurgents like the TTP and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) that are moving beyond border skirmishes.
“So either the Taliban can basically take a step back from the brink, or they can come forward and continue to fight on the border country, but also increase support for the TTP, BLA and all the other groups to operate inside Pakistan,” says Avinash Paliwal, a lecturer in international relations at SOAS University of London.
The BLA has been at the center of a decades-long insurgency, which in recent years has staged large-scale coordinated attacks.
Pakistan has long accused India of supporting the rebels, a charge repeatedly denied by New Delhi, which has maintained a robust military deployment along the border since last May.
“A two-front situation has long been a nightmare scenario for Pakistan,” said former Pakistani diplomat Maleeha Lodhi.
“For Pakistan, a prolonged breakdown in the relationship [with Afghanistan] compounding its security challenge given the volatile situation on the eastern border with India.”
Although a number of influential countries, including China, Russia, Turkiye and Qatar, have indicated an openness to help mediate the conflict, all such efforts have so far been met with limited success.
“The challenge for now is that there is a huge gap between the expectations of the two sides,” said Ibraheem Bahiss, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group focusing on Afghanistan.
“We have to somehow bridge that to come to a more realistic compromise that is both workable and digestible for both sides.”
