Bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as early as next month if the gold-denominated bitcoin price is any indication, according to Rony Szuster, head of research at Brazil’s largest crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin.
In dollar terms, the latest high occurred in October 2025 at around $126,000. If the current cycle follows past patterns, the downturn could extend into late 2026, Szuster wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.
But when priced in gold, the timeline shifts. Bitcoin peaked against gold in January 2025. Applying the same 12- to 13-month pattern would place a potential bottom around February 2026, with a rebound possibly beginning in March.
The deviation reflects broader macro forces.
Since the start of Donald Trump’s new mandate, markets have faced aggressive trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes in the US and rising tensions with China and Iran. Rising tensions with the latter have since resulted in an ongoing military conflict.
Global uncertainty, measured via the World Uncertainty Index, has exploded as a result. Gold benefited from this shift, rising more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. As capital rotated to bullion, bitcoin weakened against it faster than it did against the dollar, Mercado Bitcoin’s analyst wrote.
Exchange-traded funds are also under increased pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs, about 12% of the $61.6 billion total.
However, this fear-driven sell-off paints only part of the picture.
As reactive capital flees bitcoin, large-scale investors or “whales” are treating the downturn as an accumulation zone, the report adds, noting that major Abu Dhabi investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments added spot bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February.
Against this backdrop, Szuster urges investors to build their positions intelligently and utilize a dollar cost averaging strategy to take advantage of current market fears and avoid timing issues.
“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” he wrote. “Does that mean it’s already bottomed out? No. But it does mean we’re statistically in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”
