Bettors have long been able to speculate on the chance of a nuclear weapon detonating on Polymarket, but the current conflict with Iran – and scrutiny of insider trading on war – has apparently prompted the platform to remove the contracts.
Polymarket has created a market that would make money on a nuclear attack amid growing concerns that bets are being made among government insiders who can make military decisions. pic.twitter.com/r1CbWaLWcw
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) March 3, 2026
The markets, which asked users to assign probabilities to whether a nuclear weapon would detonate on certain dates, have been circulating on Polymarket for years and have historically decided “No.”
But renewed attention to the contracts comes as the prediction markets come under fire after a trader reportedly bet more than $400,000 on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s ouster shortly before the US operation that led to his capture, raising questions about whether insiders could exploit the platforms to trade the outbreak of war – such as the start of this current military conflict with Iran.
Historical trading suggests that the contracts occasionally priced meaningful risk.
A Polymarket contract in 2023 involved at one point approx. 19% chance that a nuclear weapon would detonate before the end of the year, according to platform data.
A later market expiring in June 2025 was trading close to 12%.
The markets also attracted significant trading activity. The 2025 contract alone recorded more than $1.7 million in volume, while the 2023 version drew nearly $700,000 in stakes.
All this comes as US regulators consider how to oversee the prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules in 2024 that would bar exchanges it regulates from listing event contracts linked to war, terrorism, assassination or other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.
Chairman Mike Selig said the Commission plans to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets in the near future.
