After weeks of steady pullbacks, investors are starting to allocate fresh capital to US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The change follows a difficult start to the year for the products. From mid-October, when bitcoin’s price began to fall, to the end of February, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative outflows of about $9 billion, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart. The category still shows $1.1 billion in net outflows for 2026, but flows have changed in recent days. Since February 24, investors have added about $1.7 billion.
The rebound suggests that some investors believe bitcoin may have found at least a short-term bottom.
“It was surprising to me that there was basically no dip buying since bitcoin was a falling knife to start the year,” Seyffart said. At the time, both software stocks and cryptoassets fell, but investor behavior split. Software ETFs drew record inflows as traders tried to time a bottom, while bitcoin ETFs continued to see steady pullbacks.
These withdrawals were not dramatic, but they continued.
Now the pattern seems to be reversing. Seyffart said the recent price action may have helped restore confidence. Over the weekend, bitcoin held above its recent lows despite geopolitical tensions linked to Iran.
“I think investors probably feel a little bit more comfortable that we’ve at least hit a near-term bottom,” Seyffart said. “The higher low this weekend on such massive news must be a comfort to some.”
The inflow also appears to reflect outright bullish positioning rather than market neutral trading strategies. Some institutional investors use ETFs and futures together in what is known as basis trading, where they capture profits from price differences between the spot and futures markets.
But that setup doesn’t seem attractive right now.
Yields attached to these trades remain relatively low, while open interest across CME’s crypto futures and options markets has declined. This decline suggests that fewer traders are taking large derivative positions that typically accompany arbitrage strategies.
Instead, ETF inflows look more like straightforward bets on bitcoin’s price direction.
Despite bitcoin falling around 16% this year, almost all spot bitcoin ETFs still show positive net flows for 2026, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) adding approx. $300 million in capital year-to-date. This dynamic highlights how investors continue to allocate through regulated fund structures even during downturns.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, said the flows also reflect growing conviction among large asset managers promoting the funds.
“It’s easy to frame this as BlackRock simply promoting its highest-grossing product,” Geraci said. “But I see it more as the firm doubling down on its belief that bitcoin belongs in diversified portfolios.”
Geraci noted that BlackRock has many higher-fee ETFs it could focus on instead. Meanwhile, its spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, is down about 4% this year. Asset managers rarely highlight lagging funds unless they strongly believe in the long-term case, he said.
