Bitcoin reached $74,000 and ran out of further buying pressure.
The biggest cryptocurrency retreated to $70,987 by mid-day East Asian time, down 2.2% over the past 24 hours after Thursday’s surge took it to its highest level since early February.
The rise from Saturday’s war-driven low near $64,000 to Thursday’s $74,000 peak amounted to about 15% in five days, but the pullback since has given back about a third of that move.
Chart watchers such as FxPro Chief Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that the rejection coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average, two technical barriers that tend to attract sellers in bear market rallies.
Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from a mathematical sequence that traders use to identify where a bounce is likely to stall. The idea is that after a big move down, prices tend to follow a predictable percentage of that decline before resuming the trend.
The 61.8% level is the most closely watched because it represents the point where a rally has recovered about two-thirds of its losses, far enough to feel compelling, but historically where bear market rallies tend to die.
The 50-day moving average, meanwhile, is simply the average closing price over the past 50 days. It acts as a moving resistance line during downtrends because it represents the price that the average recent buyer goes to, giving them an incentive to sell rather than hold. Bitcoin hitting both at the same time makes $74,000 a technically crowded level.
Kuptsikevich noted that “the bulls still need to convince the community that the bear market is over,” adding that the magnitude of the move was driven by a short squeeze from bears that “pulled their stops too close to the market price.”
Bitunix analysts flagged a similar reading on the microstructure. The push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leveraged liquidation clusters around $70,000. Secondary cash pools are close to $64,000. It creates a defined area for the next move, where floor and ceiling are both visible on the liquidation heat map.
The weekly numbers still look strong for the majors. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over seven days. Ether rose 2.7% to $2,080. BNB added 3.1% to $648. Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. The laggards were dogecoin, down 3.7% on the week, and XRP, which was largely flat, down 0.2%.
However, the macro picture heading into the weekend is messy.
Asia’s benchmark share index is down 6.4% since the Iran war broke out, with MSCI’s regional gauge heading for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is on pace for its best week since November 2024. Oil is posting its biggest weekly gain since 2022. These are not the conditions that typically sustain a crypto.
Friday brought some temporary relief. Asian stocks erased early losses as the dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell on reports that the United States was mulling options to counter rising energy costs.
But the war is not over. The Senate failed to block Trump’s continued military actions against Iran, leaving conflict costs and energy disruptions as open variables. Defense Minister Hegseth has said that the operations can last three to eight weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted.
The $70,000 level, which was resistance for a month, is now the first test of support. Holding it indicates that the outbreak is real. Losing it puts the $64,000 floor back into play.
