Bitcoin fell to $67,960 on Saturday morning, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours and pulling back sharply from last week’s high. The move fits what has become a recurring script in recent months, with late-week selling pulling prices toward the lower end of the range heading into Saturday.
Majors took the harder hit again. Ether fell 4.4% to $1,974, solana fell 4% to $84.31, dogecoin lost 2.9% to $0.09, and BNB fell 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.
However, the weekly picture tells a more nuanced story. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% over seven days. Ether has risen 2.6 per cent. BNB added 2.1 per cent. The midweek rally absorbed the war shock and then some, though Friday’s pullback took the shine off it.
Meanwhile, the dollar posted its steepest weekly gain in a year, strengthening as markets priced in higher energy costs, stickier inflation and a Fed with even less room to cut interest rates. It is a direct headwind for bitcoin and every other asset against the dollar.
“As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors quickly moved to the safety of the US dollar, which strengthened as markets began to price in higher energy prices and revived inflation fears, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts,” Björn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, said in an email to CoinDesk.
On-chain data paints a fragile picture beneath the surface. Glassnode data shows that 43% of bitcoin’s total market supply is now at a loss. It is a significant overhang.
As bitcoin recovers, these underwater holders have an incentive to sell at any rally to break-even, creating persistent resistance on the way up. That is one of the reasons why the push to $74,000 on Thursday could not last. Every jump to higher prices runs into supplies from people who have been waiting months to get out.
One bright spot came from stablecoin flows. Messari recorded a 415% jump in net stablecoin inflows to $1.7 billion during the week, with daily transfers up nearly 10%. That’s potentially dry powder waiting to be deployed, suggesting retail is not entirely absent despite the fear-heavy sentiment. The question is whether that capital rotates to bitcoin or waits for lower prices.
The war continues to set the pace. The conflict between the US and Iran showed no signs of resolution this week. The oil remains elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is still disturbed. And the macro backdrop of a strong dollar, sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts is the worst combination for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s week looked impressive in the headlines, touching $74,000 mid-week, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another round in the series.
