Oil futures rose to over 110 dollars per barrel on Monday. barrel, as escalating tensions in the Middle East rattled global markets, sending Asian shares sharply lower, with all the region’s markets opening deep in the red, even as bitcoin held steady near $67,000.
West Texas Intermediate crude increased by approx. 17% in 24 hours. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 6% and South Korea’s Kospi fell about 8% as traders traded energy costs across import-dependent economies.
The rally focuses on the risk that fighting could limit oil flows near the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point through which about 20% of the global crude supply passes daily. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 76% probability of crude reaching $120 by the end of March.
Bitcoin traded around $67,000 with little sign of panic selling. Ether and solana posted modest gains, suggesting that crypto markets have so far treated the rise as an energy-specific shock rather than a broad risk event.
Not all traders are convinced the move has legs. Funding yields on oil perpetual futures turned negative on Hyperliquid, indicating significant positioning for a pullback even as spot prices rise.
The markets still see little chance of an imminent rate cut.
Contracts on the Polymarket show a probability of about 98% that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at the March 18 meeting, with only about a 12% chance of a 25 basis point cut before the end of April.
A sustained rally in crude oil would add to inflationary pressures, something the Fed would have to consider when setting interest rates.
