The VIX and bitcoin often move in opposite directions, with sharp spikes in the volatility index often coinciding with bitcoin’s local bottom.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 based on option prices and is widely considered Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” jumped to its highest level in nearly a year, rising above 35. The rise signals growing panic across traditional markets.
The move came as global markets reacted to a rise in oil prices. WTI crude oil briefly rose to around $120 as futures opened on Sunday before retreating towards $100. Volatility has weighed on both traditional safe havens and equities, with both US stocks and gold falling.
However, Bitcoin has deviated from that trend. The largest cryptocurrency is up about 5% over the past 24 hours, trading above $69,000.
Historically, bitcoin tends to bottom out when the VIX rises. During the April 2025 tariff-driven market turmoil, bitcoin found support near $75,000 as the VIX rose to around 60. In August 2024, the unwinding of the yen carry trade pushed the VIX above 64, while bitcoin fell to around $49,000. A similar pattern emerged during the March 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, when the VIX briefly rose above 30 and bitcoin hit a local low near $20,000.
Bitcoin’s own volatility gauge suggests that the crypto market has already experienced its panic phase. The Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which measures expected price volatility derived from bitcoin options prices, rose above 96 in early February when bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, the highest level since the yen’s trading turmoil in August 2024. The BVIV is now back just above 60.
This divergence could indicate that crypto markets were ahead of the stress now hitting traditional finance, although a VIX near 30 suggests that volatility in traditional markets may not be over yet.
