Shares of Circle (CRCL), the crypto firm behind the USDC (USDC) stablecoin, could add to their recent remarkable rise, according to analysts at brokerage Bernstein.
The team, led by Gautam Chhugani, rates the stock as Outperform with a price target of $190, suggesting about 60% upside from the current $120 level. And that’s after the stock is up more than 100% in the past few weeks following an earnings beat that likely triggered a short squeeze.
Bernstein’s thesis focuses on stablecoin adoption that increasingly diverges from the broader crypto market.
Circle’s USDC supply fell shortly after the October liquidity shock in crypto markets, but has since bounced back to just shy of its all-time high of $78 billion, even as bitcoin and the broader crypto markets remain well below its highs. The total market for US dollar-backed stablecoins also remained steady at around $270 billion despite the crypto bear market, the report noted.
Transaction activity is also accelerating, the report noted. Adjusted stablecoin volumes grew more than 90% year-over-year, while transaction velocity — a measure of how often tokens change hands — has increased, suggesting that stablecoins are increasingly being used beyond crypto trading.
Payment adoption is a key driver behind this, Bernstein said, as stablecoins are increasingly integrated into traditional card networks, enabling day-to-day transactions. Visa ( V ), for example, now supports more than 130 such stablecoin-linked cards across 50 countries, processing about $4.6 billion in annual settlement volume, the report noted.
Circle is also expanding its Circle Payments Network, which allows institutions to send USDC cross-border and convert it to local currencies through banking partners. The network now includes about 55 institutions, with annual volumes reaching $5.7 billion earlier this year, the report said.
Looking ahead, Bernstein also highlighted a potential new growth theme: AI-powered “agentic finance.” As autonomous software agents increasingly transact online, stablecoins may become a natural payment rail for machine-to-machine micropayments, such as for API calls or automated services.
To support this vision, Circle is building a high-throughput, payments-focused blockchain called Arc, designed for fast, low-cost transactions.
Read more: Why Circle and Stripe (and many others) are launching their own blockchains
