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Team USA is in a precarious position after their stunning 8-6 loss to Team Italy in their final pool game Tuesday at Daikin Park: They no longer control their own destiny in the World Baseball Classic.
Italy improved to 3-0 with the win, while the USA fell to 3-1. While Italy and the USA both have three wins, Team Mexico is 2-1 and will face Italy on Wednesday.
If Italy beat Mexico, they would improve to 4-0 in pool play and Mexico would drop to 2-2. In that scenario, Team USA would be the runner-up in Pool B and advance with Italy to the quarterfinal round.
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U.S. right fielder Aaron Judge (99) walks back to the dugout after striking out against Italy to end the ninth inning at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, March 10, 2026. (Thomas Shea/Imagn Images)
But if Mexico defeats Italy on Wednesday, the USA, Italy and Mexico would all be 3-1. In that scenario, Team USA could end up being the odd man out. If Mexico defeats Italy, they are guaranteed to advance, leaving the final spot between Team USA and Italy.
The initial tiebreaker is based on runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the three teams. Not all games are nine innings in the World Baseball Classic, as there are mercy rules.
If a team wins by 15 runs after five innings or 10 runs after seven innings, the game ends. The mercy rule only applies to pool play and quarter-final play.
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Italy pitcher Greg Weissert, right, celebrates with catcher JJ D’Orazio (28) after defeating the United States in a World Baseball Classic game Tuesday, March 10, 2026, in Houston. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
On the flip side, games with extra input can also change the calculation.
Because Mexico have allowed fewer runs than Italy in pool play, they are guaranteed to advance if they beat Italy on Wednesday.
If Mexico wins, the only way the U.S. could advance would be if Italy put up more than five runs in their loss, assuming the game is only nine innings.
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U.S. center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) hits a home run against Italy in the seventh inning of a World Baseball Classic game in Houston, Texas, March 10, 2026. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
Italy can lose and still advance if they give up four or fewer runs to Mexico in the loss.
Mexico and Italy play at 7pm ET on FS1, and Team USA will be watching with bated breath.
