Iranian crude has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz at a near-normal pace, even as Tehran-related attacks on ships in the narrow waterway have decimated exports from other Gulf countries, a Reuters review of tanker tracking data showed.
Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the United States launched strikes on the country on February 28, according to analysis by TankerTrackers.com, a maritime intelligence firm that specializes in tracking the so-called shadow fleet, a network of vessels used to transport oil and gas from countries under Western sanctions.
Ship-tracking service Kpler pegged Iranian exports in the first 11 days of March even higher at around 16.5 million barrels.
Iran’s retaliation for the Israeli and US strikes has included attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the Middle East, bringing non-Iranian vessel transit through the main gateway for much Middle Eastern oil exports to a near standstill and forcing producers in the region to cut output.
Iran’s ability to continue exporting oil without reported wiretapping stands in stark contrast to what happened during the US military campaign in Venezuela, which involved a naval blockade of the Latin American nation and the seizure of vessels attempting to enter or exit Venezuelan waters.
“I am surprised, given their successful seizure of Venezuela-related vessels last December, that the United States did not initiate a similar campaign before starting this conflict, or has not done so at this time,” said David Tannenbaum, a director at consulting firm Blackstone Compliance Services.
But U.S. efforts to stop Iranian tankers could trigger more attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, said Next Barrel oil and shipping analyst Matias Togni.
As long as Iran moves its ships through the region, Iran has an incentive to keep the Strait of Hormuz open at least to some extent, said James Lightbourn, shipping financier and founder of Cavalier Shipping, a maritime investment and advisory firm.
“If the US seized tankers, it would give Iran less to lose by closing the strait completely (such as with mines),” Lightbourn said.
US President Donald Trump’s White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Washington is planning any action against Iranian oil exports.
Iranian exports at the same pace as last year
TankerTracker.com and Kpler data indicate that Iran’s crude oil exports are equivalent to between 1.1 million barrels per day and 1.5 million bpd from February 28 to March 11.
The country’s average exports last year were 1.69 million bpd, according to Kpler records.
The pace may increase in the coming days. Several very large crude oil tankers, the largest oil carriers in operation, are still loading oil at Iran’s export hub on Kharg Island, according to satellite images reviewed by TankerTrackers.com.
Before the Feb. 28 attacks, Iran had boosted exports to about 2.17 million bpd in February in anticipation of Israeli-US military action, Kpler data showed. Record oil exports from Iran were about 3.79 million bpd in the week of Feb. 16, the data showed.
Six crude oil tankers have left Iran since February 28, including the US-sanctioned vessel Cuma, which sailed this week, according to analysis by Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Two floating gas tankers, also under US sanctions, sailed out of Iran on Friday after loading cargo. Reuters previously reported.
At least 11 million barrels of crude have been shipped out of Iran, and four supertankers that left Iran carried 8 million barrels that arrived in waters around Singapore, a separate analysis showed.
The vessels follow the same pattern of sailing within Iran’s exclusive economic zone, which extends up to 24 miles and beyond local territorial limits of 12 nautical miles.
This is considered to give the ships some protection by keeping them in Iranian waters, shipping sources say.
