Bitcoin rose to $72,000 during European hours on Friday, up 2% since midnight UTC and outpacing gains in US stock indexes.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index fell in Asian hours before recovering. Both are now in the green. The US Dollar Index (DXY), meanwhile, broke above 100, a move that typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.
Today, however, the crypto market seems relatively immune to that pressure, with notable gains across the board. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is 1.1% higher since midnight.
If bitcoin can break above $74,000, a level it has failed to penetrate recently, with convincing volume, it could trigger a breakout back to the $80,000 region. Otherwise, it will likely revert to a trading range dating back to February 5.
The war in Iran continued to rage on Friday morning, with new strikes detected in Tehran and Dubai, keeping oil around $100 a barrel.
Derivatives positioning
- Cumulative industry-wide futures open interest (OI) rose 5% to $107.6 billion over the past 24 hours, signaling continued capital inflows as bitcoin and other tokens remain stable amid turmoil in global equity markets.
- Bitcoins (OI) rose to 687,200 BTC, the most since February 25th. Ethers (ETH) grew to 13.72 million, the highest since January 30. Annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas for both remain positive, a combination that indicates investors’ bias toward bullish plays.
- In XRP, OI rose nearly 10% to $1.86 billion, the most since February 6. Along with positive funding rates, this suggests a renewed investor capital drive for bullish bets. Open interest in SOL, ADA and SUI futures also saw significant increases.
- Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) fell to a two-week low of 55%, supporting the case for continued spot price gains. Ether’s volatility is also decreasing. This stability contrasts with increased volatility in the US financial market.
- On Deribit, bitcoin puts remain more expensive than calls, a sign of continued demand for downside protection. For ETH, the put premium at the long end has all but evaporated, suggesting a bullish reset.
- Block flows contained demand for bitcoin put spreads and ether call spreads.
Token talk
- The altcoin market also showed strength on Friday. US presidential-themed memecoin TRUMP surged more than 30% in 24 hours following the announcement of a “gala lunch” with Donald Trump for the top 297 token holders.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) tokens bittensor ( TAO ) and Artificial Super Intelligence Alliance ( FET ) both rose 14% as investors continue to speculate on a broader market breakout.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is now at 40/100, the highest point since January 9th.
- CoinDesk’s Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the leading benchmark over the past 24 hours, having risen 6.5%. It is followed by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and the DeFi Select Index (DFX), which are up 4% and 3.7% respectively.
- A latecomer over the last 24 hours has been canton (CC). The token on the institution-focused layer-1 network is down 4%, bringing the loss over the past month to 11%.
