Bitcoin the price has remained relatively unscathed during the two-week war with Iran. What’s more impressive is that its key volatility metrics have also remained stable, a sign that crypto traders are less fearful than those in traditional markets such as stocks, oil and bonds.
Tensions between Iran, the US and Israel erupted into open conflict on February 28, damaging oil infrastructure across the Middle East and disrupting tanker flows. Analysts warned that the turmoil could trigger massive price volatility and fear-driven hedging across asset classes.
So far they have been partially wrong.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has remained remarkably stable, holding between 55% and 60%, according to TradingView data. Implied volatility reflects the demand for options, so the stability suggests that traders have not aggressively purchased put options, which hedge against price declines.
However, traders in traditional markets are freaking out and chasing these opportunities, as evidenced by spikes in their respective volatility indices.
The stock gauge, the VIX – which measures the expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 based on option prices – averaged just over 20% before the conflict. It jumped to over 32% on March 6 and remained elevated near 26% on Monday.
Cboe’s crude oil volatility index, OVX, rose to more than 100% from 64%. MOVE, which tracks volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose to 85% from 73%, hitting a high of 95% at one point, reflecting broad market uncertainty. The volatility index for gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven in troubled times, held steady above 30%.
The difference between bitcoin and traditional market indices matters. Asset prices can be noisy and affected by erratic flows, but volatility indicators often provide a clear picture of investor sentiment, particularly the demand for protection against downside risks. By that measure, BTC traders seem calm.
One possible explanation is that the crypto sentiment was already undecided before the Iran conflict. Bitcoin’s price plunged from an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025 to the low $60,000s in the months that followed, a slump that rattled many bulls and forced others to hedge against further declines.
In that context, the Iran war has been less of a shock to the crypto market than to stocks and other markets, which traded near record highs or were calm in the weeks leading up to the conflict.
According to an analysis by bitcoin-focused financial firm River, the cryptocurrency has averaged double-digit returns over 60-day periods during several geopolitical events since 2020.
History repeats itself. Bitcoin has risen more than 10% to $74,000 in two weeks, according to CoinDesk data.
All things considered, the message is clear: BTC has held firm when it mattered most. It remains to be seen whether the stability will continue.
