By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is taking a breather ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which may confirm that the interest rate backdrop is becoming less of a tailwind.
The central bank is widely expected to keep benchmark borrowing costs unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range, putting the focus on growth and inflation projections as well as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments at the post-meeting press conference.
“For investors, the key question is whether the dot plot is shifting towards fewer cuts and whether Powell is underlining the danger of easing monetary conditions too quickly,” said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, referring to the chart of where policymakers expect interest rates to be by the end of the year. “Either development would reinforce a ‘higher for longer’ bias and tighten financial conditions at the margin.”
According to Dori, the bitcoin price is at a critical juncture where repeated failures to stay above $75,000 signal caution and mean reversion behavior. Should the Fed raise alarm over the inflationary impact of the Iran war-related oil price shock and reinforce expectations of slower or delayed rate cuts, then BTC is likely to remain below $75,000.
“A more hawkish stance could keep bitcoin below 75k and extend the current consolidation phase,” he noted.
Singapore-based QCP Capital said markets have bucked easing expectations as higher oil prices complicate the case for rate cuts even as growth and labor market data soften. This leaves the price backdrop less supportive for crypto.
Bitcoin’s stalled recovery has stalled despite renewed institutional appetite for spot ETFs and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC.
The broader market continues to reflect the largest cryptocurrency. The CoinDesk 20 index has been largely flat over the past 24 hours, along with similar action in ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) and other majors. However, smaller coins such as SIREN, M and KAS have gained around 10% each.
In traditional markets, futures linked to the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5%, signaling an extension of a two-day rally. Meanwhile, the dollar index retreated to 99.50 from Friday’s high above 100 and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.17% from 4.30%. Taken together, these moves point to continued risk-on sentiment. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 18, 8:30 AM ET: US PPI MoM for February Estimated 0.3% (Prev 0.5%); Core PPI MoM Estimated (Previous 0.8%)
- 18 March at 8:30am: US PPI YoY for February estimated 3.7% (Prev 3.6%); Core PPI YoY estimated 3.2% (Previous 3.6%)
- 18 March at 9:45am: Bank of Canada rate decision estimated at 2.25% (previously 2.25%)
- 18 March at 10am: US Factory Orders MoM for January (Prev -0.7%)
- 18 March at 2pm: Federal Reserve rate decision estimated 3.50%-3.75% (Prev 3.50%-3.75%); FOMC economic projections
- 18 March at 2.30 p.m.: Fed chairman’s press conference
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 18: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.03
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- March 18: Jupiter (JUP) holds its weekly Planetary Call community session with team updates.
- March 18: head of marketing and PR to discuss ecosystem updates.
- The WalletConnect Network is voting to allocate 50 million WCT tokens as a dedicated reward budget for WalletConnect Pay in 2026. Voting ends on March 18.
- ENS votes for a one-time transfer of 900,000 USDC from the ENS Endowment to wallet.ensdao.eth to cover a shortfall in stream payments owed to ENS Labs. Voting ends March 18.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- March 18: Katana (KAT) to list on Binance, MEXC, KuCoin and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.73% as of 16 ET Tuesday at $73,825.38 (24 hours: +0.11%)
- ETH is down 0.44% to $2,307.45 (24h: -0.33%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.78% to 2,148.73 (24h: -0.27%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps to 2.75%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0069% (-7.5643% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.56
- Gold futures are down 0.10% at $4,996.20
- Silver futures are up 0.65% at $80.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 55,239.40
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.61% at 26,025.42
- The FTSE 100 rose 0.29% to 10,433.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.02% to 5,828.33
- The DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.10% at 46,993.26
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 22,479.53
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.16% at 32,929.09
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 3.50% at 3,459.11
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 2 bps to 4.20%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 1.30% to 6,809.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.57% to 25,184.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 1.18% to 47,595.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.11 (0.15%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03139 (0.1%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 919 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.37
- Total Fees: 3.08 BTC / $228,857
- CME Futures open interest: 115,080 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.93%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows the number of BTC/USD longs, or bullish bets, on Bitfinex.
- Growth has stalled, with the number now at 78,470, compared to 79,115 at the start of this month.
- As counterintuitive as it sounds, past data shows that declines in long positions on Bitfinex tend to be bullish for BTC and vice versa.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $210.23 (+3.40%), +1.77% at $213.95 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.50 (+1.73%), +0.89% at $23.71
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.24 (+0.11%), +0.97% at $9.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.68 (+1.94%), +1.02% at $14.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.42 (–3.24%), +1.46% at $16.66
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.11 (+0.90%), +0.99% at $10.21
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.24 (–0.86%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.13 (–0.79%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $132.31 (+5.15%), +1.50% at $134.30
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.94 (+0.81%), +1.10% at $40.38
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy Inc. (MSTR): closed at $150.28 (+1.87%), +0.32% at $150.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $11.10 (+2.21%), unchanged in pre-market
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $8.31 (+1.34%), +0.48% at $8.35
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.15 (+6.48%), -0.87% at $1.14
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.21 (–3.20%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $199.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.51 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $138.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.99 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
