On Friday, the global markets will face a trillion dollar quarterly derivatives, known as quadruple witching.
The event takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, with four main types of derivatives expiring simultaneously. These include stock index futures, stock index options, single stock options and single stock futures.
Because traders must close, roll or liquidate these positions simultaneously, trading activity often increases and price fluctuations can intensify in the traditional markets.
The exact figures for the March 2026 expiry have not yet been released, although recent events illustrate the scale. In March 2025, about $4.7 trillion worth of equity and index derivatives expired during the quarterly event. According to TradeStation, this session saw the highest S&P 500 trading volume of the entire year, while other witch days also recorded above-average activity.
Large maturities like this often force institutions to rebalance portfolios, unwind hedges and adjust risk exposure within a short window. Much of the activity tends to be concentrated in the last hour of trading, when liquidity spikes and volatility can rise rapidly.
This quarter’s expiration arrives amid an already volatile trading environment. Conflict in the Middle East recently pushed oil prices to $120 a barrel, while gold slipped below $4,600 and bitcoin fell below $69,000. Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index jumped above 35 last week, the highest level in a year, signaling increased stress in financial markets.
Although quadruple witching originates from traditional finance, it can spill over into crypto markets. Bitcoin increasingly trades alongside broader risk assets, meaning sharp moves in stocks often ripple into digital markets.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, said tomorrow’s event could drive volatility in crypto markets, noting that “quadruple hexing could trigger an increase in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire. This may already be showing up in crypto, with the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility (BVIV) higher index event.”
How bitcoin fared on quadruple witching days in 2025
On March 21, bitcoin fell slightly on the day, but the more significant move came later, with prices falling around $76,000 a few weeks later following the market reaction to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
On June 20, bitcoin fell 1.5% and continued to slide lower, hitting a local low near $98,000 just two days later. On September 19, Bitcoin fell over 1% on the day, but the real move unfolded the following week with a sharp drop from $177,000 to $108,000. Then, on Dec. 19, bitcoin closed about 3% higher at around $85,000, though it remained in a broader decline from its October highs.
While the price action on the day itself tends to be relatively muted, a consistent pattern of weakness emerges in the days to weeks following.
While the quad-witching won’t add to bitcoin’s volatility on Friday, crypto traders have another event, specific to digital assets, to keep in mind.
Crypto derivatives face their own big quarterly expiration the following week, on March 27, with $13.5 billion due to expire on Deribit, with positioning pointing to increased demand for volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets.
