President Donald Trump is ending the third week of the Iran war confronting a crisis that appears to be slipping out of his hands: Global energy prices are rising, the United States is isolated from allies and more troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise that the war would be only a “brief jaunt.”
A defensive Trump called other Nato countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was unfolding according to plan. But his declaration on Friday that the battle “was won militarily” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran strangling Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.
Trump, who took office promising to keep the US out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the message of a conflict he helped initiate. The lack of a clear exit strategy poses risks to both his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects as Republicans struggle to defend a narrow majority in Congress in November’s midterm elections.
“Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “It’s his biggest source of frustration.”
A White House official challenged that characterization, with many of Iran’s top leaders eliminated in targeted killings, most of its navy sunk and its ballistic missile arsenal largely destroyed.
“This has been an undisputed military success,” the official said.
Limits on Trump’s powers
The limits of Trump’s power – diplomatic, military and political – were thrown into sharp relief over the past week.
He was caught off guard by the opposition of other Nato members and other foreign partners to deploying their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this story, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal considerations.
Not wanting to appear isolated, some White House aides have advised Trump to quickly find an “exit ramp” and set limits on the scope of the military operation, a person close to the discussions said. But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway Trump.
In the view of some analysts, the allies’ reluctance reflects not only their reluctance to be embroiled in a war they were not consulted on, but a backlash against his downplaying of traditional US alliances since returning to office 14 months ago.
Differences with Israel have also begun to emerge, with Trump insisting he knew nothing in advance of the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said the strike had actually been coordinated with the United States.
Trump now finds himself at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury with no clear indication of which way he might go, analysts say.
He could go all-in and intensify the American offensive, possibly even capturing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along Iran’s coast to hunt down missile launchers. But that would risk a long-term military commitment that the American public would most likely oppose.
Or, with both sides rejecting negotiations for the time being, Trump could declare victory and try to walk away, potentially alienating Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded, hostile Iran — one that could still pursue a crude nuclear weapon and still exert control over Gulf shipping. Iran has denied that it is seeking a nuclear weapon.
Reuters reported on Friday that the US military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself.
The war has also seen Trump’s once-iron grip over his MAGA movement weaken, with prominent influencers speaking out against the conflict. While his base has mostly stood by him so far, analysts say Trump’s control could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices continue to rise and US troops are deployed.
“When the economy plays itself out,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, “people will start saying, ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again? … Why is the Strait of Hormuz now deciding whether I can take a vacation next month?'”
As the economy plays out,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, “people are going to start saying, ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again? … Why is the Strait of Hormuz now deciding whether I can take a vacation next month?'”
Miscalculations
Since the start of the war on February 28, there has been a growing realization within the administration that the conflict and its consequences should have been better mapped out in advance, according to two sources familiar with White House thinking, although the first White House official responded that the campaign was extensively planned and well prepared for any potential action.
Analysts say Trump’s biggest misjudgment was over how Iran would respond to a conflict they consider existential.
Tehran has retaliated with its remaining missiles and a fleet of armed drones to offset its foes’ military superiority, striking neighboring Gulf states and mostly closing the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil.
Whether Trump and his aides foresaw the dangers or not, they have been unable to address them effectively.
“They failed to think through the contingencies of ways that a conflict with Iran could go sideways, where it might not go according to the plan that they laid out,” said former US ambassador John Bass, who served in Afghanistan and Turkey.
As the conflict has dragged on, there have been increasing signs of Trump’s frustration with his inability to control the narrative. In recent days, he has ripped into the news media, making baseless claims of “treason” for reporting he sees as undermining the war effort.
“He’s having a hard time driving the news cycle that he’s used to because he still can’t explain why he’s led this country to war and what’s next,” said Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration foreign policy adviser who now heads the Situation Room strategic consultancy in Washington. “He seems to have lost his mojo on messaging.”
