By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market held firm alongside U.S. stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the dollar index eased on signs that ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as Thursday.
Still nothing is confirmed and it may be too early to position for a full return to normality, according to some observers.
“We are not geopolitical experts, but we would have thought that Iran would have the maximum benefit of high energy prices going into any negotiation,” said analysts at ING. “Thus, it is probably too early to expect a big drop in energy prices or a much softer dollar this week.”
Skepticism also remains on the Iranian side. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey that recent US military moves have deepened suspicions that Trump’s peace proposal may be a ruse.
Macro conditions are also becoming less supportive. The US money market curve has now priced in any Fed easing this year, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of at least two 25 basis point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.
On the crypto front, the news flow hasn’t helped either. Circle Internet’s ( CRCL ) stock fell on Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act proposed limits on interest payments on inactive stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan may be selling BTC for around $30 million, with the government still holding 4,453 coins worth around $315.9 million.
Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, with declines proving short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often signals underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a major move higher. The momentum in bitcoin’s upcoming options expiring on Friday points to a potential for a bounce to $75,000. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 25 March at 8:30 AM: US Import Prices MoM for February Estimated 0.2% (Prev 0.2%); Export prices MoM (previously 0.6%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- March 25: Humanity (H) unlocks 4.19% of its circulating supply, worth $10.1 million.
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 2.21% as of 16 ET Tuesday at $71,509.33 (24 hours: +0.68%)
- ETH is up 2.99% to $2,184.78 (24h: +1.43%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.73% to 2,065.01 (24h: +0.93%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps to 2.74%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.4960% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.15% to 99.29
- Gold futures are up 3.13% at $4,536.90
- Silver futures are up 4.38% at $72.31
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 53,749.62
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 25,335.95
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.85% at 10,049.44
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.39% to 5,658.96
- The DJIA closed down 0.18% on Tuesday at 46,124.06
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.37% at 6,556.37
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.84% at 21,761.89
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 31,941.59
- The S&P Latin America 40 closed up 0.43% at 3,480.97
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is up 6 bps to 4.39%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.68% to 6,651.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.86% to 24,422.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.67% to 46,727.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.97% (0.16%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03055 (-0.04%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $33.72
- Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $175,777
- CME Futures open interest: 116,345 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.7 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.77%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in the bitcoin-gold ratio since last July.
- The ratio is up 23% this month, signaling bitcoin’s outperformance relative to gold.
- However, the broader bitcoin bear market is still intact and the ratio had yet to top the trend line representing the slide since August 2025.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $181.04 (-9.76%), +2.94% to $186.36 in premarket
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.25 (-7.41%), +3.52% at $8.54
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.33 (-0.28%), +2.72% at $14.72
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.85 (+1.63%), +2.43% at $17.26
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-4.01%), +2.61% at $9.83
- Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $7.20 (-11.33%), +6.39% at $7.66
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.87 (-1.35%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.17 (-20.11%), +3.04% at $104.25
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.37 (-5.51%), +1.61% at $37.97
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $136.25 (-1.41%), +2.97% at $140.29
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.17 (-4.53%), +3.63% at $7.43
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.30 (-1.84%), +2.58% at $21.85
- Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST): closed at $9.93 (-4.89%), +2.01% at $10.13
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (-5.13%), +2.70% at $1.14
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+1.69%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$66.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$40.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.7 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.79 million
Source: Farside Investors
