By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoins traded in a tight range of late, with volatility indices surprisingly calm despite the Iran war, oil shocks and Fed rate hike expectations hanging over the market.
Bulls call it robustness. But if you zoom out and look at other markets, it might just be complacency – and can lead to a brutal reality check.
Take oil for example. WTI is up 37% this month to $91.84, and some analysts say $200 is not out of the question. Call options on oil are now three times more expensive than puts. That’s a pretty clear sign of overall bullish positioning. All of this means more inflation and economic shocks ahead.
In the US financial market, the MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in the backbone of global finance, rose 33% to 98.00. Increased debt volatility in the world’s largest economy, which underpins global finance, typically leads to a tightening of credit worldwide.
Compare that to bitcoin’s implied volatility index, BVIV, which has actually fallen 7% to 54%. Resilience or complacency? Some companies believe it is the latter.
“Notably, short-term implied volatilities have compressed to their lowest levels since February, signaling a degree of market complacency regarding this tail risk,” TDX Strategies said in a market note.
The firm recommends “accumulating gamma,” basically betting on big moves in select altcoins, as a proxy hedge for your portfolio.
Right now, bitcoin is down 2.4% on the day to $69,500. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) follow suit, while non-serious tokens such as takes a bigger hit, down nearly 5%.
The backdrop doesn’t help: Iran has just rejected the US peace plan and laid out conditions that include closing all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for strikes, lifting all sanctions and keeping its missile program unrestricted. The US is unlikely to agree, leaving the situation deadlocked and risky assets on the sidelines.
The dollar index is on the rise, Treasury yields are ticking up and US stock index futures are in the red. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 26 March at 8.30am: US initial jobless claims for week ending March 21 estimated at 210,000 (previously 205,000)
- 26 March at 4:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s “Reflections on Financial Stability” speech at Yale
- 26 March at 7:00 p.m.: Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson speaking on “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series, Dallas
- 26 March at 19.10: Fed Governor Michael Barr speech on “Economy”, Washington, DC
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 26: Hyperion DeFi (HYPD), pre-market, -$4.62
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- March 26: Katana Network (KAT) Epoch 1 for KAT rewards begins
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.63%% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $69,946.60 (24 hours: -2.67%)
- ETH is down 4.04% to $2,079.75 (24 hours: -4.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.78% to 1,991.19 (24h: -3.91%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.74%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0023% (-2.5032% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.10% at 99.70
- Gold futures are down 2.91% at $4,417.60
- Silver futures are down 6.11% at $67.94
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.27% at 53,603.65
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.89% at 24,856.43
- The FTSE 100 is down 1.23% to 9,982.48
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.50% to 5,564.52
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.66% at 46,429.49
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,591.90
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.77% at 21,929.83
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.38% at 32,382.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.35% at 3,562.75
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 6 bps to 4.33%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.83% at 6,585.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.96% at 24,135.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.76% at 46,355.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.98% (0.01%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.0299 (-1.65%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 976 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.89
- Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $188,510
- CME Futures open interest: 117,100 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.6 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.64%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows XRP’s daily price fluctuation (UTC) in candlestick format since November 2025.
- XRP’s price has fallen below a triangular consolidation pattern represented by the two converging trend lines.
- It’s a signal that bears have established the path of least resistance lower, opening the doors for deeper slides.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Wednesday at $181.10 (+0.03%), -2.07% at $177.36 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.33 (+0.14%), -1.73% at $20.96
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.28 (+0.36%), -2.42% at $8.08
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.16 (+5.79%), -2.51% at $14.78
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.05 (+1.19%), -2.87% at $16.56
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.96 (+3.97%), -2.01% at $9.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.29 (+1.25%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.30 (+3.68%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $103.86 (+2.66%), -2.52% at $101.24
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.43 (+0.16%), -1.63% at $36.82
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.13 (+2.11%), -2.03% at $136.31
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.85 (+9.26%), -1.84% at $10.65
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.28 (+1.53%), -3.98% at $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.19 (+7.21%), -1.68% at $1.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+0.00%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $7.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$8.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.69 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.75 million
Source: Farside Investors
