Yes, you read the title correctly. The number of bullish bitcoin stakes, the so-called BTC/USD long positions, on the OG exchange Bitfinex have hit multi-month highs.
But bulls, brace yourselves as this metric has become a textbook “contrarian indicator” over the years, with recoveries characterizing bitcoin’s price decline.
Highest since 2023
The number of BTC/USD longs has risen to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data source CoinDesk.
Increasing bullish bets usually signal increasing upside pressure – a positive reading. But historically, the market has done the exact opposite, falling just as Mother Nature turns sunny prospects into storms.
For example, the number of BTC/USD longs increased by 30% in the last quarter of 2025 as BTC’s spot price increased by 23% to $87,550. Similar patterns have been observed in recent years, as seen below.
BTC’s price bottoms when Bitfinex longs peak – and rises as they fall. Price peaks (like October) hit when longs bottom out, then prices slide when longs rise.
Analysts have previously explained this conundrum by saying that the crowd is usually clueless, so bet against them.
So the recent spike in lengths suggests that bitcoin’s choppy price action between $65,000 and $75,000 could soon end in a selloff, reinforcing the downtrend that began above $100,000 last year. It goes without saying that past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
That said, other factors such as reports that the US plans to send troops to the ongoing war in Iran, the oil price shock and fears of a Fed rate hike also favor the bearish.
At press time, bitcoin was trading around $66,400, according to CoinDesk data.
