By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
If macro concerns linked to the Iran conflict weren’t enough, new research has revived what could be seen as an existential threat to bitcoin quantum computing.
A paper from Google suggests breaking the Bitcoin blockchain’s cryptography with quantum computers could require fewer than 500,000 qubits, a fraction of previous estimates. A separate paper from Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests that a system with about 26,000 qubits can break the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains in about 10 days. (“Qubits” are considered the processing power units of quantum computers.)
A quantum hack would compromise the core principles of crypto, namely “trust the code” and the “hard money” value proposition, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Around 25%-30% of the total bitcoin supply is already vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks.
While these attacks remain theoretical, according to Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb, they set a deadline: The network may need to upgrade to quantum-safe technology around 2029.
The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization has already pulled back to $66,250 from a high of over $68,000 reached in Asian opening hours. This comes as demand-side conditions look weak and real or inflation-adjusted bond yields rise, discouraging investment in risky and emerging technologies such as bitcoin.
While the broader market followed bitcoin lower, one token stood out. QRL, the native cryptocurrency of the Quantum Resistant Ledger, has surged 40% in 24 hours, hitting a high of $1.62. The token’s market capitalization was just over $127 million at the time of writing.
QRL describes itself as “an externally audited, enterprise-grade blockchain platform secured today against tomorrow’s quantum computing advances.”
Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on elliptic curve encryption that makes it vulnerable to quantum attacks, QRL uses a quantum-safe signature scheme called XMSS (eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme).
XMSS is a post-quantum cryptography algorithm recognized by standards bodies such as NIST for its resistance to quantum attacks. By design, XMSS generates one-time signatures that are extremely difficult for quantum computers to crack, making QRL theoretically “future-proof” against quantum threats.
Takeaway: Projects like QRL could attract more attention and potentially gain market value as concerns about quantum threats grow. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- March 31: FTX Recovery Trust distributes about $2.2 billion to creditors.
- Macro
- 31 March at 9am: US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev 1.4%)
- 31 March at 9.45am: US Chicago PMI for March (previously 57.7)
- 31 March at 10.00am: US consumer confidence for the Conference Board for March (previously 91.2)
- 31 March at 10:00: US JOLTS job openings in February (previous 6,946 million)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Stake DAO CRV and BAL vote on their bi-weekly targets to distribute CRV and BAL inflation across different liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
- SuperRare DAO votes to consolidate its financial management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially ending its old Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
- Aventus DAO votes to simplify AVT issuances to a fixed daily rate, increase the node stake requirement and replace ongoing fees with a pre-allocation of the appchain token. Voting ends March 31.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- March 31: EdgeX (EDGE) token generation event takes place.
- March 31: WorldLand (WL) to list on KuCoin, Gate and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.82% as of 16 ET Monday at $66,053.74 (24 hours: -2%)
- ETH is down 0.31% to $2,015.51 (24h: -1.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.1% to 1,893.79 (24h: -2.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps to 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0018% (2.0093% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.44
- Gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,598.60
- Silver futures are up 3.59% at $73.11
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.58% at 51,063.72
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.15% at 24,788.14
- The FTSE is up 0.69% to 10,197.55
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.48% to 5,568.53
- The DJIA closed Monday up 0.11% at 45,216.14
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.39% at 6,343.72
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.73% at 20,794.64
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 31,934.94
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,475.76
- The US 10-year Treasury note is down 1.8 bps at 4.324%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.85% to 6,442.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.8% to 23,323.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures rose 0.91% to 45,880.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.58% (-0.06%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03054 (0.66%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 996 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.78
- Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $167,768
- CME Futures open interest: 102,450 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 14.6 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.46%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV.
- The index remains stuck in a sideways grind, indicating market calm and low volatility.
- Traders should watch for a breakout on the back of the latest quantum computing threat as it would signal panic and increased price turbulence.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $160.79 (-0.22%), +0.47% at $161.54 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $89.91 (-4.00%), +0.12% at $90.02
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.15 (-4.72%), +1.52% at $17.41
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.27 (-3.37%), +0.69% at $33.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.80 (-2.74%), -0.13% at $7.79
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.83 (-7.58%), unchanged pre-market
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.91 (-7.70%), +1.01% at $14.05
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.18 (-5.54%), +0.73% at $8.24
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $32.33 (-8.13%), +2.78% at $33.23
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.20 (-4.32%), +2.74% at $6.37
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $121.44 (-3.64%), +0.45% at $121.99
- Strive (ASST): closed at $9.37 (-4.92%), +1.18% at $9.48
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.01 (-0.50%), unchanged in pre-market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.95 (-5.10%), +0.63% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.04 (-5.45%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $69.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.98 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.56 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
