Brazil’s main exchange B3 will begin offering six new derivatives contracts on April 27, allowing investors to bet on the likelihood of future events, from the price of bitcoin to movements in the dollar and the Ibovespa index.
The instruments, called Event Contracts, operate on a framework similar to prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Prices range up to 100 reals ($19), with each contract’s price reflecting the market’s estimated probability of an outcome.
B3’s contracts are regulated by Brazil’s securities regulator (CVM) and designed for professional investors, the exchange said.
The six contracts cover mini futures and spot prices for the Ibovespa index, the US dollar and bitcoin. They are structured with fixed payouts and known risks from the start, like crypto price prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders will not receive the underlying assets and settlement is instead cash-based. For now, only investors with more than 10 million reals ($1.9 million) in assets or CVM certification can trade the new products.
B3’s vice president of products and clients, Luiz Masagão, said the launch is part of a broader push to modernize derivatives trading in Brazil.
The exchange already offers contracts linked to central bank decisions in several countries and has closely followed the growth of predictive platforms abroad, Masagão added.
The exchange late last year revealed that it is working on its own tokenization platform and stablecoin, both of which are expected to launch this year.
B3’s launch marks the first federally regulated prediction market in Brazil, though it enters an increasingly crowded field. Platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada have operated domestically in a regulatory gray area, while US-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, Brazil’s largest brokerage, to offer event contracts tied to Brazilian economic performance.
The move also comes amid a global forecast market boom. The theoretical volume is now approaching $160 billion according to a Dune dashboard, while unique users have crossed the 3 million mark.
Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the space globally and account for most of the notional volume. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently doubled down on Polymarket, bringing its total exposure to nearly $2 billion.
Yet the regulatory landscape remains unclear on both sides of the equator. In Brazil, legal experts say it is unclear whether oversight of the prediction markets will ultimately fall to the CVM, the central bank or the finance ministry.
