JPMorgan ( JPM ) CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank is considering entering the prediction markets, signaling growing interest from major financial institutions in a sector that has grown rapidly in recent months, including among crypto-native companies.
“It’s possible that one day we will do something like this,” Dimon said on CBS Tuesday, though he ruled out offering markets in sports or politics.
“There are a lot of things we won’t do. And of course we have strict rules around insider information.”
Goldman Sachs ( GS ) has expressed similar ambitions. CEO David Solomon said during the bank’s earnings call in January that the firm is actively exploring the space. “I personally met with the two major prediction companies and their management in the last two weeks and spent a few hours with each to learn more about it,” he said. “We have a team of people here who spend time with them and look at it.”
The comments highlight how quickly the sector has evolved. Not long ago, the prediction markets were a niche corner of finance dominated by only two credible players: Polymarket and Kalshi. Today, the competition is intensifying rapidly.
Several crypto-native platforms, including Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), have integrated predictive market trading into their offerings, expanding access to retail users and increasing overall market activity.
At the same time, the early leaders continue to grow. Polymarket has secured major partnerships and investments, including ties to the Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. The company is believed to be valued at around $20 billion. Rival platform Kalshi recently hit a $22 billion valuation after a funding round led by Coatue Management.
The two platforms have different technological approaches. Polymarket operates on blockchain infrastructure and uses networks like Polygon (POL) to record trades and settle positions through smart contracts. Users deposit stablecoins, place bets on event results and receive automatic payouts based on verified results.
Kalshi does not use blockchain technology; instead, it operates more like a traditional exchange, offering event contracts under a regulated framework with centralized order matching and settlement.
It remains unclear how JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs would structure their own offerings, particularly whether they would adopt blockchain-based systems or stick with traditional infrastructure.
Regulation remains an important uncertainty. The legal status of prediction markets in the United States is still evolving, particularly around the types of events that can be offered and how contracts are classified. Big banks are likely to wait for clearer guidance before launching products.
Earlier this month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took two important steps toward building a regulatory framework for prediction markets, signaling that oversight of the sector is beginning to take shape.
