Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $66,609 on Wednesday, giving back Tuesday’s gains after Trump’s prime-time address to the nation vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks instead of offering the de-escalation that markets had priced in.
Every major token in the top 10 fell. Ether fell 2.2% to $2,056, BNB fell 3.9% to $591, XRP lost 2.5% to $1.31 and Solana’s SOL led losses to 5.2%, extending its weekly decline to 13%.
The sell-off reversed a sharp global rally that had built until Tuesday on Trump’s earlier comments that the war could end within weeks and that a deal with Tehran was not a prerequisite. Asian shares rose 4 per cent. S&P 500 futures were up. The mood was the most upbeat since the conflict began five weeks ago.
Then the speech happened. In nearly 20 minutes, Trump did not outline any change in Iran’s policy, did not provide details on how the operations would proceed and did not signal any path to a cease-fire.
The Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping route that has been effectively closed since mid-March, would reopen “naturally” when hostilities subside, he said, without giving a timeline.
Brent crude rose 5% to over $106 a barrel. barrel. Asian shares fell 2.1 per cent. US and European stock futures fell more than 1.2 per cent. The dollar strengthened. Government bonds fell on inflation concerns.
The crypto-specific image is now known for numbness. Bitcoin has spent five weeks bouncing between around $60,000 and $73,000, selling on each escalation headline, rallying on each de-escalation headline and ending up roughly where it started.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 8, deep in extreme fear territory, having been stuck between 8 and 14 for the past month.
There is a seasonal argument for optimism. April has historically been one of bitcoin’s strongest months, finishing green 10 out of 15 years with an average gain of 20.9% versus an average decline of 8.8% in down years. Bitcoin also rejected its two-month uptrend support near $60,000 last week and is trying to recapture the 50-day moving average.
But seasonality does not act against a war. The pattern of the past five weeks – hope, headline, reversal – shows no sign of breaking until the conflict itself does.
