By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin stuck in a tight range near $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday as geopolitical tensions and shifting macro expectations keep prices contained.
While the cryptocurrency saw a slight increase in the last 24-hour period, it failed to break above $67,000. It is struggling as US President Donald Trump signaled a tougher stance on Iran, which now threatens the country’s infrastructure.
Brent crude hit $120 a barrel. barrel on the spot markets, levels not seen since 2008, due to the ongoing crisis and its effects on the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipping, which has effectively been shut down.
That rise in energy prices pushed up inflation expectations and undercut the case for rate cuts, a key support for bitcoin’s recent rally. Inflation in Europe has already risen to 2.5%, driven by energy costs.
The press has revealed a gap in the market structure. Institutional inflows into bitcoin ETFs remain consistent with $22 million in net inflows this week. But data from CryptoQuant shows that total apparent demand has turned negative, with large holders distributing more than they accumulate.
Wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have lost nearly 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak, the data shows. Almost half of all bitcoin in circulation is traded at current prices at a loss.
Heading into the long weekend, liquidity will remain thin. That leaves bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility based on developments in the Middle East or macro-linked statements. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 3 April at 8:30 AM: US Nonfarm Payrolls for March Estimated 48K (Prev -92K)
- 3 April at 8:30am: US unemployment rate for March estimated 4.5% (previously 4.4%)
- 3 April at 10:00: US ISM Services PMI for March (prev 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The SSV Network DAO votes across two proposals to integrate ENS names into core protocol contracts to increase security against phishing and establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure financial sustainability. Voting ends on April 3.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.35% as of 16 ET Thursday at $66,785.73 (24 hours: +0.65%)
- ETH is unchanged at $2,058.20 (24h: +0.94%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.26% to 1,902.32 (24 hours: +0.80%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps to 2.77%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0007% (-0.7731% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.99
- Gold futures are up 1.07% at $4,701.30
- Silver futures are up 0.60% at $73.17
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.70% at 25,116.53
- The FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,436.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% to 5,678.00
- The DJIA closed down 0.13% at 46,504.67 on Thursday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% to 33,108.20
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 bps to 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.12% to 6,613.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.10% to 24,167.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.10% at 46,678.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $30.68
- Total Fees: 2.54 BTC / $170,134
- CME Futures open interest: 106,230 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.9 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.46%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in tether’s dominance rate in candlestick format. The dominance rate represents the share of stablecoin-tether in the total crypto market.
- The dominance rate rises again after a temporary pullback or countertrend correction. This breakout suggests that the broader uptrend in dominance is likely to have resumed.
- This has bearish implications for the broader market, as dollar-pegged assets like Tether typically gain dominance during market-wide sell-offs.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged after
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% at $17.69
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), -1.03% at $8.62
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged at $12.86
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), -0.62% at $16.13
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), -0.80% at $6.05
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), -0.17% at $35.70
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% at $90.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), -0.19% at $36.30
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% at $9.76
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% at $6.21
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), -2.12% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged at $1.12
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$71.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.69 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first western European transit during Iran war (euronews): The news could encourage other airlines to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days, and it follows Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announcing an agreement with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
US repatriates Chinese drug fugitive in sign of stabilizing ties (The Wall Street Journal): This is the first case of its kind in recent years and is described as a rare move that points to cooperation ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit next month.
Iran attacks Gulf energy sites as Trump warns of more attacks (Bloomberg): Iran targeted several sites in the Arab Gulf states, including in Kuwait on Friday morning, hours after Trump issued new threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran to start peace talks.
Japan tightens exchange rate as volatility rises, signals readiness to act (Reuters): The yen, trading near the psychologically important 160-per-dollar mark, lingered at levels that raised concerns about market intervention, highlighting growing unease over the speed and extent of its decline.
