Bitcoin may no longer move in step with Federal Reserve policy, according to a new report from Binance Research that points to a structural shift driven by spot exchange-traded funds.
For years, crypto markets reacted sharply to interest rate signals, with bitcoin falling as central banks tightened monetary policy.
That pattern now appears to be breaking, as Binance data shows bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned strongly negative since 2024. Spot bitcoin ETFs were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024.
Prior to ETFs, the relationship was mildly positive, with BTC tending to follow global easing cycles for several months. Now the report finds that the opposite effect is almost three times stronger, suggesting that the old link has been reversed.
The change reflects a shift in who is driving the prices. Retail investors once dominated crypto trading and reacted to macro news. ETFs allowed institutions to play a bigger role, and these firms often placed months ahead of policy changes, treating BTC as a forward-looking asset.
“As a result, BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading price provider,'” Binance Research wrote. “A peak in easing may already be old news for BTC, and crypto-native drivers – such as political progress and institutional flows – may matter more than the direction of monetary easing itself.”
The results come as markets grapple with renewed stagflation fears linked to rising oil prices and growing geopolitical tensions over the war in the Middle East.
Interest rate expectations have shifted from expected cuts to possible increases, a backdrop that historically pressured risk assets.
Binance claims that the reaction may be overstated. In previous cycles, central banks often pivoted to support growth despite increases in inflation. If history repeats itself, central banks will eventually have to prioritize growth over inflation, and bitcoin will likely price that sooner than expected.
