The world at large has been surprised by Islamabad’s conspicuous role as the sole interlocutor between Washington, DC and Tehran in a conflict that has also engulfed Gulf countries that host US bases, including Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait – and, to a lesser extent, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Given US President Trump’s consistent inconsistent stance – he has regularly made contradictory and inflammatory statements about the end of hostilities – Pakistan’s role has been outstanding by any standard and has been the only ray of hope in bringing the warring parties to the negotiating table. While Islamabad’s tireless efforts have been appreciated by many, its prominence has shattered New Delhi’s self-conceit and hubris.
For India, Pakistan’s consistently increasing relevance on the global stage is a tough pill to swallow. The effect was so severe that it drove Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar mad enough to utter highly obscene and undiplomatic words, a shockingly derogatory term about Pakistan indeed. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry aptly responded that the use of such terms “betrays a deeper sense of frustration” and “when the arguments are thin, invective seems to fill the gap”.
Whatever view India or other stakeholders may have of Pakistan’s global relevance, the fact remains that despite the country’s internal weaknesses, no one can deny Pakistan’s eternal geopolitical importance in the international order.
It is appropriate to quote Hathaway, who argues in his study titled ‘The Leverage Paradox: Pakistan and the United States’ that “by most standard measures of power – population size, GDP, size and capacity of its military, possession of nuclear weapons – Pakistan tops the global rankings”.
The author argues that “as Bruce Riedel has noted, if Pakistan were dropped to another place on the map—for example, Latin America or Africa—it would be one of the dominant countries in its region” (p. 117). Therefore, for many doyens, Pakistan cannot be overlooked in its importance to the regional and global geopolitical and security architecture.
During the two decades of the ‘war on terror’ and the intensification of conflict on the home front inside Pakistan, the country witnessed unprecedented turmoil and destruction perpetrated by foreign proxies and terrorists. During these years, Pakistan began to be portrayed as the most dangerous place in the world. In addition to negative media coverage, various publications also titled the country in ways that led readers to believe that the situation there is precarious and that the state and society are on the verge of an inevitable collapse.
For example, one commentator in The Atlantic begins his op-ed with this description: “With its ‘Islamic’ nuclear bomb, Taliban- and Al-Qaeda-infested borderlands, dysfunctional cities and warring ethnic groups, Pakistan may well be the world’s most dangerous country, a nuclear Yugoslavia in the making” (Kaplan, 2009). Manuscripts printed during this era included titles such as ‘Descent into Chaos’ (Rashid, 2008), ‘Armageddon in Islamabad’ (Riedel, 2009), ‘Pakistan: a hard country’ (Lieven, 2011), ‘Breakdown in Pakistan’ (Bano, 2012), ‘Aiding Armageddon, Theiding, Theiding Armageddon, Theiding, Theiding Armageddon, R (2012). Pakistan Paradox’ (Jaffrelot, 2015), ‘Pakistan at the Crossroads’ (Jaffrelot, 2016), ‘Pakistan under siege’ (Afzal, 2018) and ‘Pakistan: courting the abyss’ (Devasher, 2018). These are just a few titles in addition to countless media reports portraying or predicting an imminent doomsday for Pakistan.
There is no doubt that since the birth of this country and throughout its turbulent history, the overall economic and political landscape has not improved much more than what the nation deserves, and the country is struggling with more crises today than it was in the late 1990s. Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has had to face tumultuous years in the first four decades, including wars with India and the breakup of East Pakistan into Bangladesh in 1971. There is no doubt that the country still faces a polycrisis that includes domestic political, economic, governance and security challenges. Yet, as in the past, it is the resilience of the nation that allows Pakistan to emerge from the abyss.
To begin with, one of the country’s main fortes is the geographical location of Pakistan: a country located at the intersection of three regions that include Central Asia, the Middle East and South Asia. Due to its distinctive location, Pakistan has remained an active player in global politics and has played a dynamic role in epoch-making historical events such as the Cold War era and the ‘War on Terror’ period.
Pakistan has long occupied a key position on the global stage due to its geography, demographics and other factors (such as its strong military capabilities). For example, according to Chase, Hill, and Kennedy (1999), among the world’s 140 developing states, there is a group of nine core states whose status and destinies are likely to significantly affect regional and even global security. Pakistan is among these nine states (others are Indonesia, India, Turkiye, Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Algeria and Mexico).
Pakistan and these countries have mostly been regarded as “pivotal states” (Chase, Hill, & Kennedy, 1996, p. 33) – countries whose fate determines the survival and success of the surrounding region and ultimately the stability of the international system. Therefore, “because of its position sandwiched between Afghanistan and India, as well as its Indian Ocean coastline, Pakistan will continue to be a key state both for the United States and for China” (Sweijs, Oosterveld, Knowles, & Schellekens, 2014, p. 38).
While many political experts suggested that Pakistan’s importance would diminish significantly for the US, especially after the departure of its troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, the reality is that Pakistan appears to be a central state in the current crisis. The country has emerged as the only actor mediating between the US and Iran, as both countries trust Islamabad.
In recent years, Pakistan’s foreign policy has been remarkably successful in maintaining solid ties with both Beijing and Washington, as well as with Tehran and key Gulf capitals. Islamabad’s engagement with Beijing is built on decades of mutual trust and the relationship is multi-faceted and includes deep defense cooperation, joint military projects, intelligence cooperation, expanded trade and economic cooperation under CPEC and Pakistan’s status as the largest recipient of Chinese arms exports since 2008. All this makes Islamabad-Beijing ties on military defense quite unique without a military alliance or military alliance.
At the same time, on the back of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, there is no doubt that since his second arrival in the Oval Office, Pakistan has successfully engaged his administration. Islamabad has been remarkably successful in garnering Trump’s accolades in multiple forums on multiple occasions. It remains a long shot to what extent Pakistan can broker a long-awaited and much-needed peace deal, contingent on the behavior of Iran and the US
The very fact that both Tehran and Washington have reiterated confidence in Islamabad and that Pakistan has maintained a channel of communication between the two countries signifies Pakistan’s extraordinary diplomatic efforts and standing.
The author teaches at the University of Malakand. He can be found at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pakinomist.tv’s editorial policy.
Originally published in The News
