Bitcoin traded around $68,780 on Tuesday as US spot bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest daily advance in more than a month.
Funds added a combined $471 million on April 6, according to SoSoValue data, marking the largest inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-largest daily total this year. The number remains below January’s peak flow regime, when multiple trading days topped $700 million.
These high inflows come as bitcoin continues to stall below $70,000, with weak demand and distribution from large holders covering the upside. ETFs have increasingly offset this pressure, serving as a primary source of marginal purchases.
Macro signals offer limited direction. Markets are pricing in a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its April meeting, according to Polymarket data, with minimal expectations of near-term cuts or hikes.
Bitcoin’s relationship to global monetary policy may change, with ETFs changing not only the magnitude of demand but also the timing.
A recent Binance Research report finds that bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned sharply negative since 2024, the same year US spot ETFs were approved. Prior to that, bitcoin tended to follow easing cycles with lag. That relationship is now reversed, with the reverse effect almost three times stronger.
The shift reflects who sets the marginal price. Retail has once reacted to macro after the fact. ETF-driven institutional flows are more forward-looking and position themselves ahead of expected policy moves.
“BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading price provider,'” Binance Research wrote.
ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and anchor prices, which may explain the continued daily draw.
If what Binance Research suggests holds, bitcoin could continue to trade as a forward-looking asset, pricing in central bank pivots before traditional markets rather than reacting to them after the fact.
