The crypto market remains pegged just below the ceiling of early February with bitcoin hovers at $71,200 and ether (ETH) trades at $2,185. The sideways review comes despite a risk boost from the recent US-Iran ceasefire, leaving analysts sharply divided on the next leg.
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone said this week that BTC must regain $75,000 or risk a meltdown to $10,000. Fundstrat Tom Lee has taken a contrary view, claiming that “the bottom is in” on Wednesday, although it’s worth noting that his fund holds $10.4 billion in ETH.
BTC is up around 0.3% since midnight UTC, while ETH is flat after outperforming the broader market on Wednesday, and while BTC has posted modest gains, all eyes remain on whether this range-bound stability is a launchpad or a trap.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has risen to 726,000 BTC, a one-week high, and has risen sharply from 693,000 BTC over the weekend. The figure is up over 1% in the past 24 hours, a sign of continued capital inflows despite the spot price’s stalled rise.
- BTC’s 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains positive for the second day in a row, and perpetual funding rates hover just above zero. These data sets, combined with OI increase, suggest a persistent bias for bullish plays.
- OI in ether, XRP and solana futures are also up by 1% to 2%. However, the CVD and funding rates of these tokens are slightly negative, suggesting an increasing demand for bearish bets.
- CVD readings for top meme coins like DOGE and SHIB remain negative – a signal that some see as constructive for the broader market, as strong bullish positioning in speculative tokens is often seen as a sign of excess froth.
- Bitcoin and ether volatility indices continue to fall as a sign of market calm. 10x Research said the market is pricing in just a 2.5% swing in either direction based on Friday’s inflation data.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH continue to show a mild bias for put options, which offer downside protection, although much weaker than a week ago. Speaking of flows, the $80,000 bitcoin call has seen the largest increase in the number of open positions in the past 24 hours, followed by the $82,000 call.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continued to impress on Thursday, with the likes of MANA and AERO up 6% apiece, while decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens MORPHO and PENDLE rose 3.7% and 2.7% respectively since midnight UTC.
- It’s worth noting that MANA’s move comes alongside a 25% increase in open interest, suggesting the move was supported by leverage as opposed to spot buying.
- The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC) were the best-performing benchmarks on Thursday, with gains of between 0.4% and 0.5%, while the broader CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is unchanged.
- Traders will be watching to see if bitcoin can break above $75,000 and establish a level of support that is likely to lead to a period of capital rotation into altcoins, many of which are still oversold after a February selloff and subsequent period of consolidation.
