Sentiment in bitcoin the market appears to have reversed after a long time, suggesting an investor is positioning for a potential rally to $80,000.
On Deribit, which accounts for a majority share of the multi-billion dollar global crypto options market, the $80,000 call – a derivative bet that prices will rise beyond that level – has emerged as the most popular trade. It has overtaken the $60,000 put, which dominated positioning in recent months as prices fell.
At the time of writing, open interest at the $80,000 strike is over $1.6 billion, with each contract representing one bitcoin, according to Deribit data. The $60,000 put has open interest of $1.41 billion.
BTC has already rebounded above $70,000 from early week lows near $67,000, supported in part by a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran that weighed on oil prices. Analysts say continued weakness in oil could help ease inflation concerns, potentially bolstering the case for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve — a backdrop that tends to support risk assets, including bitcoin.
On-chain data offers some additional support for the bullish case.
“For only the second week of 2026, Bitcoin wallets with more than 10,000 BTC have recorded net inflows. This points to whale accumulation rather than ETF-driven demand. If it continues, it increases the likelihood of a supply squeeze that could push Bitcoin towards $75,000-$80,000,” said senior director at crypto Howcento of Winrypto.
Separately, analysts at 21Shares see the possibility of further upside, with a potential move towards $100,000 by the end of June under favorable conditions.
“Over the past month, we’ve seen more than $1.5 billion in net inflows into BTC ETFs, alongside an increase in holdings by larger investors of around 6% since the start of the year – pointing to continued demand from more sophisticated participants,” said Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares. “If geopolitical tensions ease and regulatory clarity improves, a move towards $100,000 by the end of Q2 cannot be ruled out.”
There are still risks. The truce is fragile, and any renewed escalation could send oil prices back up, potentially dampening risk appetite and limiting bitcoin’s gains.
Later today, US GDP data for the fourth quarter will be released. While the backwardation release may have limited immediate impact, a significant surprise in either direction could still trigger near-term volatility. Pay attention!
What is trending
- Trump vows to keep US troops in Persian Gulf before Iran talks (Bloomberg): As both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire, Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran planned to strengthen a fragile ceasefire.
- Everyone Awaits US Inflation Figures, But Bitcoin Traders Couldn’t Care (CoinDesk): The latest US inflation report for March, due on Friday, is seen as a key indicator by several observers, given the backdrop of the Iran war and its inflationary impact. Still, recent BTC market activity shows that traders couldn’t care less.
- ‘NATO in grave danger after Iran war’, says former US NATO ambassador (euronews): Former US NATO ambassador Ivo Daalder said repeated threats by Trump to withdraw from NATO and others regarding confrontations have created the ‘worst crisis’ the alliance has ever faced.
- Inflation data, Iran talks: What to watch for the rest of the week (The Wall Street Journal): After Wednesday’s big stock market rally, investors will see if the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds, awaiting updates on inflation data, fourth-quarter GDP estimates and new data on consumer sentiment.
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since October 2025. It also has a yellow trend line drawn from the record high above $126,000 in October representing the brutal bear market.
At the time of writing, BTC’s price was trading close to this trendline resistance, a mark or break level.
A decisive breakout above the trendline – ideally on strong volume and sustained follow-through – would mean that the downtrend has likely changed. That could open the door for a broader bullish trend reversal, with the possibility of a move towards the $75,000-$80,000 region initially, and potentially higher if momentum builds.
On the other hand, a rejection of the trendline would reinforce it as a valid resistance level, indicating a continuation of the bear market. This would increase the risk of another pullback towards recent support levels, potentially to $65,000 or lower.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
