Bitcoin retreated to $71,843 on Friday after a third attempt to breach $73,000 was met with selling on Thursday, a level that has now rejected the price on every rally since the Iran conflict began in late February.
The retreat is modest. Bitcoin is up 7.9% on the week, its strongest weekly performance so far in the war, and is holding above its 50-day moving average, which has turned upward for the first time since the conflict began. Ether held at $2,189, up 6.6% on the week. Solana’s SOL rose 5.1% to $83.09. XRP added 2.8% to $1.34. Dogecoin rose 2.4% to $0.092. The entire top 10 is green on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month.
But $73,000 is apparently a wall. The level has capped bitcoin three times since the truce was announced on Tuesday — each attempt producing a rally that dissipated within hours. The pattern is identical to the area before the armistice, just moved higher. Instead of grinding between $65,000 and $73,000, bitcoin is now grinding between $70,000 and $73,000.
“We will have to wait for the price to rise above $75,000 before we can talk about the market entering an active bullish phase,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst, said in a note to CoinDesk. He added that bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average, strengthening short-term bullish sentiment, but marked the repeated rejection of $73,000 as the barrier to be broken.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz set the bar higher, saying the key conditions for bitcoin to resume its uptrend is consolidation above $74,000 followed by a break above $80,000. “Breaking through these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend,” he said.
The ceasefire that sparked Tuesday’s rally is already fraying. Iran accused the US of breaking three clauses in the deal.
The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially reopened with “technical limitations.” Oil rebounded from its 15% one-day crash to trade back above $97.
Ether’s setup is similarly ranged. The token retreated 4% from its Wednesday peak to $2,189, which Kuptsikevich described as market noise within a $2,000 to $2,400 consolidation zone.
“A breakout beyond this quiet consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move,” he said.
Outside of the majors, Algorand fell 11.4%, Aptos fell 6.1% and Polkadot lost 6.1%, marking an altcoin divergence that typically occurs when traders rotate instead of injecting new capital.
The fear and greed index climbed out of single digits for the first time in over a month, meanwhile.
If the truce survives the weekend and the strait opens further, $73,000 will have its fourth test with momentum behind it. But if Tehran’s grievances escalate or Trump’s rhetoric shifts, the pullback toward $68,000 to $70,000 is the path of least resistance.
