Crypto trading has cooled in early 2026, and Wall Street analysts are adjusting their forecasts before companies report first-quarter earnings.
New research from Barclays and Oppenheimer shows that more analysts are reaching similar conclusions a few weeks into the second quarter. Expectations are falling across the sector as trading volume weakens and earlier projections look too optimistic.
Barclays took the most direct step by downgrading Coinbase (COIN), warning that “global crypto trading activity has fallen to a level not seen since late 2023.” The bank added that “in the absence of a resurgence in near-term crypto trading activity, we see profitability under pressure at Coinbase.”
The slowdown is visible in the data. Coinbase’s March trading volume marked “the lowest volume month since September 2024,” Barclays wrote, with April showing “no signs of improvement.” For the first quarter, the bank estimates that volumes fell by around 30% compared to the previous quarter.
Coinbase and other exchanges charge fees for each transaction they facilitate, meaning lower volumes will lead to less revenue.
The mechanics are straightforward. When the markets go quiet, many traders step back. A retail trader who once traded weekly during a rally may stop altogether when prices flatten. Multiply this behavior across millions of accounts and exchange volume drops quickly.
This matters because transaction fees remain the main revenue driver for most crypto platforms. Barclays emphasized that risk, saying its forecast for Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA is about 24% below the Street, driven mainly by weaker spot trading and retail activity.
Crypto prices have pulled back in the first quarter, with the average price of major tokens falling sharply quarter-on-quarter. Bitcoin lost over 22% of its value in the first quarter of this year, while ether fell 29%.
Oppenheimer struck a similar tone, but maintained a more bullish stance on Coinbase. The firm said it is cutting its forecasts due to softer crypto prices and lower trading activity in the first quarter, driven in part by broader economic uncertainty. It also noted that current Wall Street estimates still do not fully reflect the decline in trading volume during this period.
That delay is now being fixed.
Across the industry, analysts are revising the models downward to reflect a quieter market.
Oppenheimer cut its Coinbase volume estimate to $211 billion for the quarter, down from $244 billion previously, and now expects total revenue of $1.48 billion, below previous forecasts and consensus.
The reset is not limited to Coinbase. Oppenheimer said Circle (CRCL) continues to expand the USDC stablecoin network, with stablecoin market capitalization and USDC transfer volume increasing by 1% and 12% quarter over quarter, respectively.
Crypto platform Bullish (BLSH), the owner of CoinDesk, saw “strong platform activity” linked to volatility in February, although spot volumes still missed expectations. As a result, Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH earlier this week, while Compass Point downgraded CRCL – to “neutral” and “sell” respectively.
Even these pockets of strength highlight the broader issue: the core business of crypto trading is slowing.
Efforts to diversify revenue streams are underway, but it may take time to offset the downturn. Coinbase’s push to become what it calls an “everything exchange” includes derivatives, tokenized assets and emerging markets. Barclays was skeptical, writing that the strategy is “likely to take a long time to pay off” and that it sees “little ‘right to win’ in new asset classes like equities.”
Stablecoins, often seen as a more stable revenue stream, also face uncertainty. Barclays pointed to the ongoing debate in Washington over regulation, noting that the status of stablecoin rewards “remains in doubt.” At the same time, Oppenheimer sees near-term support from new use cases, saying “increased market activity for predictions could support USDC growth.”
Yet these areas remain secondary to trade.
The broader solution is for analysts to move preemptively. With earnings season approaching, companies are lowering estimates now rather than risk being caught off guard by weak results later.
Coinbase reports second quarter earnings on May 7th and Bullish reports on April 23rd. Circle has yet to announce a date.
