ISLAMABAD:
With the chances of imminent talks between Iran and the US diminishing, the focus has also shifted away from Islamabad, at least for now.
Pakistan has remained in the global spotlight since the US and Iran first agreed to a temporary ceasefire three weeks ago, leading to the first direct talks between the two adversaries since 1979.
In the last 10 days or so, Pakistan twice came close to arranging another round of talks. But Iran’s preconditions, such as lifting the US naval blockade, prevented the second round from taking place.
Since then, backchannel diplomacy has taken over. Islamabad may no longer be in the spotlight, but it remains a key player directing efforts behind the scenes.
It was through Pakistan that Iran recently shared a proposal with the US to end the war.
Although the exact details were not available, the proposed plan first envisaged reopening the Strait of Hormuz before serious discussions on other issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.
The US said it would not accept the current Iranian proposal.
In a social media post on Tuesday, US President Trump said Iran had informed the US it is “in a ‘collapse mode'”, insisting Tehran wants the Strait of Hormuz opened as “they try to figure out their leadership.”
Disagreements on major issues aside, Iran and the United States have divergent approaches to how to end the conflict.
Iran wants a step-by-step approach and does not want to sign a deal in a hurry. The United States, meanwhile, is pushing for an “all-in-one deal” that envisions all contentious issues, including the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear matters.
Washington feels that lifting the naval blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz would remove its main leverage at the negotiating table.
With the United States having reservations about the Iranian proposal, American media are suggesting that Tehran may soon submit a revised set of plans via Pakistan to Washington.
This shows that the diplomatic process, although moving at a slow pace, has not stopped.
Iran, meanwhile, is simultaneously trying to develop a regional framework that bypasses the United States to deal with some of the pressing issues.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman and Russia while also making two stopovers in Islamabad.
Similarly, the top Iranian diplomat spoke with the Saudi, Qatari, French and Turkish foreign ministers to discuss the evolving situation.
While Russia supported Iran and President Putin offered to help resolve the issue, Oman appears unwilling to accept Iran’s proposal to exercise joint control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Separately, an extraordinary meeting was called by Saudi Arabia from the Gulf countries to discuss possible options.
But unity among the ranks of the Gulf countries suffered a blow when the United Arab Emirates decided on Tuesday to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel that controls the supply of oil to ensure price stability in the market.
Some observers see it as the first major sign of how the Iran-US war has changed the global order forever.
The United Arab Emirates has decided to leave OPEC, a cartel established in the 1960s to regulate the supply of oil on international markets.
OPEC, which originally had five members, was later joined by other oil-producing nations. It controls 36 percent of the global supply of crude oil and holds 80 percent of global crude oil reserves.
OPEC limits its members’ production to maintain price stability in the market.
The UAE, the second largest producer in OPEC, wanted to increase supply but could not do so as the cartel did not allow it.
Now, after leaving OPEC, the UAE can increase its oil supply.
This can increase competition and benefit end consumers.
But the downside is that this may increase volatility in the markets and other nations may also leave OPEC.
This is only one aspect. There will be a new security architecture in the region after the Iran-US war, according to some observers.
It is only the beginning, they add.
