Bitcoin is on the defensive as April draws to a close, although seasonal trends suggest any pullback could prove short-lived, potentially paving the way for a renewed move higher in the coming weeks.
Data dating back to 2013 shows that May tends to be a bullish month for the largest cryptocurrency, with gains in seven of the past 13 years. While the average return of around 8% is less impressive than stronger months like October and November, it still points to a positive bias.
On the heels of April’s rise of around 10%, the seasonal pattern suggests that the broader uptrend may remain intact. The outlook is supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already near record highs.
Back-to-back net monthly inflows into the US-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish case. These ETFs have pulled in over $1.8 billion this month after March’s $1.32 billion.
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Still, traders need to keep an eye on the bond markets, where rising interest rates are providing headwinds to risk assets.
“Bitcoin’s inability to sustain above $78K and subsequent drift back towards $75K suggests the market is digesting the ‘higher-for-longer’ signal,” Jake Kennis, a research analyst at Nansen, said in an email. “In the absence of a liquidity catalyst, it appears to be range-bound rather than setting up for a breakout, with macro headwinds limiting upside in the near-term despite largely flat performance over 14 days (+0.7%).”
The second risk is a global economic flare-up. Several observers, including energy analyst Anas Alhajji, warned that the negative impact of the Iran war and disruption of the energy market could dampen the global economy in May.
Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, suggested as much in a report to clients on Thursday.
“May is when the lag ends and the real economy starts paying the bill,” he said. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin price fluctuations in candlestick format over 2026 and 2021-22. The graphs show two lines: the red represents the average price over 50 days and the white shows the average over 100 days.
As of today, the 50-day moving average appears to be moving above the 100-day moving average. Chart analysts refer to this as a bullish crossover, a signal that short-term momentum is strengthening relative to the medium-term trend and could point to further upside if it continues.
So the impending crossover suggests more BTC price gains ahead. That said, the indicator has a mixed record, especially in bear markets. For example, a similar bull cross occurred in March 2022, as the chart on the right shows. But it ended up catching bulls on the wrong side of the market as prices took a deeper dive in the following weeks.
