Veteran trader Peter Brandt sees bitcoin rising to $250,000 in 2029, but only after the market finishes a long drawn-out bottoming process that could last into September 2026.
This forecast makes sense in the context of bitcoin’s four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has been consistent enough to shape traders’ projections.
Historically, bitcoin bull runs have peaked about 16 to 18 months after the halving of the quadrennial mining reward before sliding into a year-long bear market. New uptrends then tend to begin 12 to 18 months before the next halving.
This pattern held in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin peaking in October 2025, approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving, reducing the BTC price per block issued as a reward to miners at 3.125 from 6.25.
If the cycle holds, the bear market that began then should bottom about a year later, around October 2026, and then a new uptrend should begin that could top out at $250,000 in late 2029, again about 18 months after the April 2028 halving.
“I’m not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It’s not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to the bottom. Worst case would be a move back to the lower green banana peel, which would be in the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blow off $290 in the late 250s.” in an email.
Peter Brandt is an experienced commodities trader whose career spans nearly five decades, beginning in the 1970s in the futures markets. He started trading traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals and currencies, long before the advent of modern electronic trading or digital assets.
Brandt’s view contrasts with the consensus among cryptoanalysts, who argue that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the rally since then marks the start of a new uptrend.
Bitcoin is up over 25% to $80,300 since the start of February, CoinDesk data shows.
Note that Brandt’s forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downward trend pushing prices below the February low. As he has noted, prices may instead move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom.
However, Brandt emphasized that his projection is entirely dependent on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm. If price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis.
“As long as the market is following the script, I will stick to my forecasts. If at some point the price discovery deviates from the script, I will be forced to revise all my thinking. I will NOT be dogmatic about it as some are,” he said.
