Expectations of US monetary policy are changing, but bitcoin appears more and more indifferent. The cryptocurrency has pushed past the $80,000 mark, signaling that macro headwinds tied to interest rates may be losing their grip on price action.
A growing number of major brokerages now expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady through the year, a marked change from earlier expectations of at least two rate cuts. Barclays joined its peers in scrapping its earlier forecast for a rate cut on Monday, pointing to persistently high energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran as an inflationary development. Other global firms, including JPMorgan, have similarly pushed back against expectations of policy easing.
Under normal circumstances, the prospect of a higher interest rate would weigh on risk assets. Still, BTC continues to gain ground. Some analysts argue that the asset is increasingly being treated as a hedge against inflation, supported by continued inflows into spot ETFs even as inflation fears rise. Others remain skeptical, attributing the rise more to strength in stocks than to any structural shift in crypto demand.
For now, the momentum seems to favor the bulls.
“From a market structure point of view, we see traders closely monitoring the $81,500 resistance level, while the CME futures gap around $84,000 remains a key zone for potential upside. These technical levels, coupled with the macro developments, are likely to guide near-term price action,” said Ashish Singhal, co-founder of the FIU-registered exchange.
Technical indicators reinforce this view. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is often seen as a dividing line between long-term bearish and bullish trends, is located near $83,430. So a decisive move above that could bolster the case for further upside.
The broader market is also showing signs of selective strength. Bitcoin’s roughly 2% gain to around $80,700 has been accompanied by big moves in certain altcoins. Toncoin (TON) is up around 35%, while MORPHO and PENGU are up 11% and 9% respectively. On the weaker side, Dash has slipped a bit. Major tokens such as ether, XRP and solana have largely tracked bitcoin’s modest progress.
At the same time, the mood is at a critical juncture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen to 50, right at the midpoint of its range, a level last seen in mid-January.
“The market is approaching a significant turning point. Since last October, there have been only brief rises in sentiment to higher levels, but these have provided excellent opportunities for bears to sell at higher prices,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Brent is holding close to $114 per barrel. barrel as Middle East tensions rage on (Reuters): Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 0.8%, to $113.51 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.16, or 2%, to $104.26, after gaining 4.4% in the previous session.
Maersk says ship passed through Strait of Hormuz under US military protection (CNBC): Maersk said one of its commercial vessels, stranded at sea since the start of the war on February 28, successfully passed through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz under US military protection.
‘A deal is a deal’: Von der Leyen hits back at Trump’s latest tariff threat (euronews): The EU is “prepared for any scenario” if Donald Trump unilaterally raises tariffs on EU-made cars, says Ursula von der Leyen.
China steps up fight against US sanctions, defies blacklisting over Iranian oil (The Wall Street Journal): China escalated its fight against the US over Iranian oil and defied US sanctions in a show of resistance ahead of President Trump’s visit to Beijing, scheduled for next week.
Today’s signal
After a sharp selloff to nearly $60,000 earlier this year, bitcoin has steadily climbed back above $80,000 within a well-defined, textbook ascending channel marked by a consistent pattern of higher lows and higher highs.
Prices are now pushing towards the upper limit of that channel, a level that can act as short-term resistance where rallies can stall or pull back.
A decisive breakout above the upper limit could trigger stronger momentum and potentially speculative frenzy towards $100,000. But repeated rejection at this level could send prices back towards $70,000 or lower.
In short, bulls are in control right now, with prices approaching an important technical test.
