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It’s been two full seasons since the Dallas Cowboys have had a winning record and clinched a playoff spot. But with a touted draft class and some notable offseason moves, will the Cowboys regain their footing and make it to the postseason again?
Don’t count on that happening, or at least that’s what Colin Cowherd thinks. Cowherd said on Tuesday’s edition of “The herd“ that he noticed Dallas’ difficulties with the schedule and doesn’t believe it will match what oddsmakers have as expected wins in the 2026 season.
“Over/Under is 8.5 wins. I’ll take the under,” Cowherd said. “I think they’re a 7-10 or an 8-9 team. I like their draft, I like their staff, but last year they played the third-easiest schedule and won seven games, and their eight games against teams with winning records, they went 1-7.”
While the full schedule for the 2026 NFL season has not been announced, the Cowboys know who they will face this fall. They have eight games against teams that made the playoffs in 2025, including the Philadelphia Eagles (twice), Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. One of their designated home games will be played in Brazil, taking on a Baltimore Ravens team that had a down year in 2025. They will also travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers and face the Texans in Houston. And that’s all before mentioning their other four games against division foes, as the New York Giants and Washington Commanders look to be in a position to contend for the 2026 playoffs.
The Cowboys finished their 2025 campaign 7-9-1 in the first year of the Brian Schottenheimer era, showing some improvement from Mike McCarthy’s last season as head coach in 2024. Schottenheimer was elevated to head coach in the 2025 offseason after two seasons as the team’s offensive coordinator, helping set up an oppressive quarterback season. (4,552 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions).
Dallas recently compiled an impressive draft class that included a pair of first-round picks (Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, UCF edge rusher Malachi Lawrence) along with some potential mid-round standouts (Michigan edge rusher Jaishawn Barham, Penn State offensive tackle Drew Shelton, Florida cornerback Devon Moore, Alabama edge rusher Over). In a year where defensive depth was needed, Dallas took advantage of the jump, and its moves to trade up and draft Downs were widely praised.
FOX Sports’ Rob Rang’s draft grade analysis for Dallas was positive with a long-term view that their new defensive look has potential.
“With two first-round picks to play with after last year’s Micah Parsons trade, it was clear the Cowboys had the potential to be active in this draft, but they were even more flexible than expected, aggressively trading up for star safety Caleb Downs at No. 11 and picking back by dropping back and still getting an explosive edge rusher at No. 3.” wrote Rang.
After trading Micah Parsons to the Packers last August in exchange for two first-round picks, the Cowboys will need their draft class and the impact of key offseason moves — like franchise-tagging wide receiver George Pickens — to help surpass the projected 8.5 win total.
Cowherd acknowledged that because of those moves, Dallas has strong roster depth. However, he doesn’t think the Cowboys have the top talent to make the playoffs in 2026.
“I think their roster is better than we give it credit for, but their schedule is brutal and they haven’t shown an ability with Brian Schottenheimer to win against better quarterbacks consistently. If you look at the Cowboys and you’re like, ‘I like what they’re doing,’ you have to check schedules.”
