Meteorologists have warned that a rare “monster” El Niño will hit this summer, potentially becoming one of the most powerful such events since records began in the 1870s.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when there is an increase in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean that recurs every two to seven years.
It is caused by the disruption of the usual air flow pattern and the transport of warm water to the coasts of South America.
It usually happens when warm water from the western Pacific Ocean moves towards South America. Because of this displacement, cold, nutrient-rich water from rising (upwelling) near Peru causes atmospheric temperature to rise, ultimately altering atmospheric circulation and altering global weather patterns.
The data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that there is now a 100%% chance of a super El Niño forming before November.
Sea surface temperatures are set to rise in the eastern Pacific to nearly 3 degrees Celsius above average.
This threshold is the highest ever recorded. The planet has not seen an El Niño of such scale since 1877-78.
What it means for the weather
This super El Niño can trigger major global weather disturbances.
In New England, record summer heat is expected, as well as more heat waves, higher humidity levels and above-normal precipitation due to heavy downpours from coastal storms.
In a typical El Niño period, hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin is limited by high wind shear, whereas storms increase in the eastern Pacific basin.
Winter conditions in the south can be wetter and snowier than average, while winter weather in the north can be milder and less humid.
Global consequences
These weather disturbances can cause food shortages, water disruptions and even civil conflict in vulnerable tropical countries.
New heat wave records are being set as potentially the biggest El Niño is about to hit.
